Fire and Ice: Gerald Wallace and Andrew Bynum

 Each week, we’ll examine two players that have gone in opposite directions in the past week or two and their prospects for the immediate future.

Gerald Wallace often plays at a frenetic pace that leads to scenes like this. But you know what this leads to? (See end of post)

Fire: Gerald Wallace

Whoever has Gerald Wallace in your fantasy league is probably close to first place. He was drafted an averaged of 30^th overall in Yahoo! leagues, is providing third-round value this season (according to Basketball Monster) and has been the 14^th-best player in eight-category leagues over the past two weeks.

Wallace’s numbers are outstanding as he’s averaging 21.9 points, 13.1 rebounds 2.9 assists, 2.0 steals and 0.9 blocks while shooting .536 from the floor. Is anyone else on the Bobcats even trying to get rebounds?

Even more remarkably, Wallace has played in all of Charlotte’s 24 games this season. That’s no small feat for a player who has never played more than 72 games in his nine-year career.

Can you see where this is going?

Wallace is a perennial injury threat, especially due to his rambunctious style of play. On top of that, he’s grabbing 10.6 rebounds per 36 minutes this season – far above his career mark of 7.2.

It’s possible that this season will remain an anomaly for Wallace, who will stay healthy and continue to rebound like Marcus Camby. But it’s far more likely that he’ll get banged up, miss some games and become less efficient on the boards.

The upside is too great to consider Wallace strictly as a “sell-high” candidate. But if you can deal for a player of equal value that is a safer long-term bet (Deron Williams, Steve Nash, Chris Bosh, etc.), it is marginalizing your risk to make a swap.

Ice: Andrew Bynum

Bynum was profiled in an Buying Low and Selling High earlier this season while he was putting up big numbers in Pau Gasol’s absence. He was the “Selling High” part and if you didn’t listen, well, you should have.

Gasol has been on a tear recently and Bynum has averaged just 12.9 points, a measily 5.1 rebounds and 1.3 blocks in his last seven games. His minutes have sunk below 30 per game and he’s 110^th in Basketball Monster’s ratings over the past two weeks.

The preseason projections for Bynum were as follows: 

Player	G	FG%	FT%	3PG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG
Bynum	64	0.582	0.704	0.0	14.3	8.4	1.7	0.4	1.9

Bynum’s current performance is even below those modest expectations. Still, Bynum came in 121^st in the preseason rankings, mainly because of the expectancy of him missing nearly 20 games.

The good news is Bynum will gradually rebound more effectively, which is the only thing really hampering his value at the moment. If a panicky owner is willing to deal Bynum and you need a center, it’s worth the risk.

Just pray he stays healthy.

This!

Old Guards, Old Legs

If you listen closely, you can hear the sound of Iveron's knees creaking.

While the extent of their injuries is currently unknown, Chauncey Billups (groin) and Allen Iverson (knee) are both heading for MRI’s. Any extended absence for either player would open up a chance for a rookie to take a significant leap in value.

With Billups, that player is Ty Lawson, who started the season well but has lost playing time since J.R. Smith returned from suspension. He is currently ranked as a 14^th-rounder in eight-category leagues, according to Basketball Monster, and not ownable while the Nuggets are fully healthy.

However, Lawson has been pretty productive with his minutes, averaging 14.1 points, 5.9 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.1 3-pointers per 36 minutes. He also has strong percentages (.503/.788) and any significant jump in playing time could make him one of the league’s more valuable rookies as long as Billups is out.

If you need steals, assists or 3-pointers (and, of course, if you own Billups), keep an eye on the situation to see if Billups’ MRI is bad news.

Jrue Holiday will stand to gain the most if Iverson stays sidelined. Practically non-existent until Lou Williams broke his jaw in late November, Holiday has been the 73^rd most valuable player in eight-category leagues over the past two weeks.

Holiday is averaging 10.3 points, 1.3 3-pointers, 4.8 assists and 1.8 steals during that span. He’s been far less efficient than Lawson, shooting just .303 from the floor this season and less than 70 percent from the line.

Williams had the wiring removed from his jaw on Wednesday and may return shortly. I’m not making an estimate because clearly anything the 76ers say about their players is to be taken with a grain of salt (see Dalembert post).

But should Iverson have a lingering injury, Holiday would continue to get minutes once Williams returns.

If both Billups and Iverson are sidelined for a while, Lawson is the preferred pickup. He’s far more efficient and plays with a more talented team, making him more of an overall threat to contribute even when he’s not scoring.

See Mike Score, Trade Mike Soon

Take care of that knee Michael. Nurse it so I can ship you out at the first opportunity.

After six weeks dealing with a shaky knee and one unsuccessful comeback attempt, Michael Redd erupted for 25 points on 11-of-24 shooting and made a pair of 3-pointers to go with four assists and one steal.

For such a prolific scorer, Redd is merely an above average fantasy asset. He provides points and 3-pointers and a nice free-throe percentage and little else. I’ve been waiting for him to return in a couple leagues, especially one where I desperately need 3-pointers and FT%.

With that said, if Redd puts together a string of solid games, he’s going right onto the trading block. His knee can’t be trusted to hold up the rest of the season and if I can use his hot streak to acquire a Top 75 player, it’s a no brainer.

Lies! Damned Lies!

Just yesterday I posted that Samuel Dalembert would be a good free agent option for at least a couple more weeks. This was based on a report I read that Marreese Speights would be out until Christmas.

Imagine my surprise when I saw Speights playing tonight and getting more minutes than both Dalembert and Elton Brand. Dalembert still managed eight rebounds and two blocks and his limited minutes were partially due to foul trouble.

Still, Dalembert’s value is on life support for the time being. Hopefully, if you grabbed Dalembert, Speights suffers a quick setback.

Bridging the Gap

My goal in any basketball draft is to grab as many guys in my Top 100 as I can. Because my rankings and projections are usually unconventional, as discussed in a previous post, it’s pretty normal for 90 percent of my roster to be among my preseason Top 100.

As I also noted in an earlier post, I always tend to trust the numbers instead of how I “feel” about a player’s prospects. But there comes a time when some players just need to be cut loose or stashed on the best.

Of course, when that time comes depends on the situation of your particular team. For instance, in one of my 12-team, eight-category roto leagues I am currently in ninth place.

It’s not a huge headache as I still have the least amount of games played in the league, mainly due to injuries and my unwillingness to play ineffective players. I’d rather fall behind than shove an unworthy player into an active spot.

My current shortcomings are due to a handful of unfortunate picks (Paul Millsap, T.J. Ford, Kirk Hinrich, Nate Robinson, Michael Redd). Each of those players were ranked 97^th or better in the preseason and yet all of been nearly worthless due to injury, lack of playing time or just plain awfulness.

For the first two months of the season I maintained enough faith in the projections that I made few moves and patiently waited for each of these players to sort themselves out. But once I fell into 11^th place, it was time to stop waiting for rotting fruit to ripen.

There are currently seven players on the roster that are clear Top 75 players. Instead of losing ground while waiting potentially irredeemable players to return to their talent level, it’s time to fill in the gaps with available players whose short-term value may have provide the team a spike. Once those players return to their former roles, it’ll be time to find the next hot hand.

For owners who are looking for a brief injection of talent, I’ll continue to post such noteworthy pickups as the season goes along. Here are some current opportunities:

Sam Dalembert (C, Philadelphia 76ers): Dalembert is likely to lose a ton of value once Mareesse Speights returns around Christmastime. But he’s been the 65^th best player in eight-category leagues over the past month, according to Basketball Monster.

Dalembert has grabbed 11 rebounds or more in six of his last eight games and has blocked 20 shots during that span. And his percentages (.475/.795) are solid as well, even enough he doesn’t attempt enough shots to make a huge impact in those categories.

Dalembert only contributes in two categories, but makes a heavy impact. Speights will not be 100 percent right way, so there’s another three weeks or so of 10 rebounds and two blocks per game in Dalembert’s lanky frame.

Jarrett Jack (PG/SG, Toronto Raptors): Despite his subpar game on Tuesday night, Jack remains a strong play as long as Jose Calderon remains sidelined. And so far, no one really knows how long Calderon will be out with a hip injury that many fear is a serious issue.

For his career, Jack is averaging 12.5 points, 5.1 assists, 1.1 steals and 0.9 3-pointers per 36 minutes. He a career .446 shooter from the floor and .850 from the line. With enough time, he’s a solid point guard.

Jack has gotten 30-plus minutes in six straight games and that trend should continue as long as Calderon remains injured. Jack may just average 13 points, six assists and 1.2 steals for the rest of the season.

As always, the recommended strategy is to grab these guys to take advantage of their increased importance. Then, just prior to the value dissipating, try to unload them in a trade with an owner who may not realize just why the player was on such a hot streak.

Ridnour Rolling

It was surprising to find the Luke Ridnour has been the 73rd best player in eight-category leagues over the past month, according to the Basketball Monster rankings. The stat that jumps out at you is a .517 FG% to go with Ridnour’s usually decent contributions in assists and 3-pointers.

The productivity of Ridnour has to make him worthy of consideration, but there’s a fantastic breakdown on BrewHoop about his future prospects. In short: leave Ridnour on the waiver wire.

Not to mention that Michael Redd is coming back tonight and if he stays healthy, it may put a squeeze on Ridnour’s role.

Rookie Spotlight: Jonas Jerebko

As a companion piece to my weekly “Rookie Report” at the Fantasy Basketball Report, each Friday a different rookie will be looked at in-depth.

Even for those of us who follow NBA basketball on a daily basis, there was probably a point in the last month when saw the name Jonas Jerebko and said, “Who is that?”

The short version: Jerebko is a 6-foot-10 Swedish forward drafted in the second round as the 39th overall pick by the Detroit Pistons. He played in Sweden and Italy before coming to the NBA.

Considering the Pistons lack of frontcourt depth, Jerebko got some opportunities from the start and has started in every game except the team’s season opener.

With injuries to Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and Ben Gordon, Jerebko has become a major and productive part of Detroit’s lineup.

Since Gordon suffered an ankle injury on November 25, Jerebko is averaging 13.4 points, 7.6 rebounds with six 3-pointers and four steals in seven games. Even as Gordon has returned to the lineup, Jerebko has maintained his effectiveness.

It’s evident Jerebko has NBA-ready skills. He rebounds well, shoots some 3-pointers and makes 49 percent of his shots overall. In true European fashion, Jerebko doesn’t provide defensive statistics but will provide shooting from the power forward position.

Jerebko should already be on the radar of fantasy owners but the true test will be his performance once Tayshaun Prince returns. The Pistons have already claimed they will continue to give Jerebko minutes, but how will his play be affected?

Should Jerebko continue to produce at this level once Detroit is at full health, he should be considered in all leagues. But it’s going to be hard for him to continue to get shots when Gordon and Hamilton are dominating the ball.

But on the plus side, who wouldn’t want to own the league’s only Swede?

Fire and Ice: Carl Landry and Manu Ginobili

Each week, we’ll examine two players that have gone in opposite directions in the past week previous week and their prospects for the immediate future.

Despite constantly facing bigger opponents, Landry's value is soaring.

Fire: Carl Landry

At 6-foot-6, Landry has the honor of being the shortest center* in NBA history. That’s pretty impressive, especially since he’s starting in place of 7-foot-6 Yao Ming. Gradually, Landry has begun to play nearly as well as Yao.

Landry is ranked 37^th overall in eight-category leagues over the past two weeks, according to Basketball Monster. He’s averaging 18.1 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.0 block and 0.7 steals per game while shooting .590 from the floor and .875 from the line during that span.

Landry has been solid all season but has really been putting it together of late, scoring in double figures in nine straight games. He’s grabbed seven or more rebounds in five of those games and has made more than half of his shots in all but two.

The Rockets have a tremendous way of getting a lot of production from players who aren’t flashy. They are the anti-Warriors.

I’m not quite sure Landry can maintain his current rate of blocking 1.3 shots per 36 minutes, which is helping his value tremendously. But his high-percentage scoring and rebounding are legitimate.

Let’s just hope Yao doesn’t come back this season.

* For some reason, Landry is not yet center-eligible in Yahoo! leagues … yet.

Ice:  Manu Ginobili

Unless “bats maimed” is a category in your fantasy league, Ginobili has been something of a mystery this season. I saw a headline earlier this season that said it best:

“Spurs need old Ginobili, all they’re getting is an old Manu”

Indeed, Ginobili has looked a step slow this season. He’s averaging just 11.6 points and 2.4 assists in five games since returning from injury, shooting 37 percent from the floor during that stretch.

Manu has added 1.6 3-pointers and 1.6 steals, so it hasn’t been a total loss. But it was shaky even before the injury for the player that landed 29^th overall in the preseason projections (and that was INCLUDING 15 projected games missed).

But now is definitely the time to buy low on Ginobili. San Antonio is actually out of the playoff picture right now, one game behind the eighth-place Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference.

The Spurs need Ginobili to be one of the best players in the NBA and it’s starting to show as his minutes have already started creeping towards 30 per game.

It doesn’t take much but a quick look at his projected stats to salivate over the thought of one of the most well-rounded players in the game being available for a bargain price: 

	G	FG%	FT%	3PG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG
Ginobili	67	0.473	0.868	1.6	16.6	4.3	3.9	1.5	0.4

I’m trying two-for-one offers to grab Ginobili in nearly every league I’m in. 

 

 

Grangerless Pacers – Day 1

A quick follow up to yesterday’s post. Taking a look at what the Pacers did in their first game without injured superstar Danny Granger. And no, I will not be doing this for every Pacers game.

Troy Murphy (PF/C): Scored 10 points, nailed a couple of 3-pointers and grabbed seven rebounds. Still working his way back from a back injury so he’s slowly rounding into his usual form.

T.J. Ford (PG): It’s sad to say that eight points, six rebounds and five assists was his best game in a while. Still think he’ll turn it around but patience has to be wearing thin.

Mike Dunleavy (SF): As the Pacers promised, he’s still getting around 20 minutes per game. He had 10 points on 5-of-11 shooting but his value has a ceiling until he starts getting more burn.

Dahntay Jones (SG/SF): Led the team with 19 points on 8-of-13 shooting, with three rebounds, two assists and zeros everywhere else. As noted yesterday, he’ll provide some scoring while Granger’s out but he doesn’t hit 3-pointers, rebound or pass.

Earl Watson (PG): Did not play due to a hamstring injury and is considered day-to-day.

Roy Hibbert (C)/Jeff Foster (C/PF): Hibbert left briefly in the first half with a shoulder injury but returned after halftime. Played just 18 minutes and finished with six points, four rebounds and no blocks.

Foster played nearly 20 minutes and still grabbed eight rebounds. He did little else, as usual.

Brandon Rush (SG/SF): Put back into the starting lineup, Rush played 24 minutes and had eight points, two rebounds and one block. He didn’t even attempt a 3-pointer. If he’s not going to shoot three’s, why bother to put on your uniform?

Tyler Hansbrough (PF): Hansbrough wasn’t mentioned yesterday but he got an opportunity after Hibbert’s injury and led Indiana’s reserves with 22 minutes. He had 13 points, 11 rebounds and a steal, though he made just 4-of-14 shots.

Hansbrough is worth keeping an eye on but he’s very inefficient right now with a .388 FG% and .681 FT% and the Pacers need all the efficiency they can get. His opportunities may be limited.

FallOut Boy: Danny Granger

Injuries to elite player are more devastating in fantasy basketball than any other sport. There are always home runs and steals to be found on baseball’s waiver wire and whenever a football player gets hurt, there are others on his own team that will benefit from the extra chances.

But you just can’t find 24 points per game off the waiver wire. There are only a handful of players of that caliber and you need to be in the upper half of your league’s draft to get them. No one player can replace their production and that’s what Danny Granger’s owners are facing right now.

Granger is out for the next six weeks with a heel injury that is so significant that he needed a wheelchair to get off the team plane.

Unfortunately for Granger’s owners, it will be impossible to replace his immense production (24.4. points, 3.1 3-pointers, 6.1 rebounds, 1.6 steals, 1.0 blocks).

Indiana has already hinted that without Granger, the team needs to revert to its up-tempo, small-ball style from the past couple of seasons in order to win games. In short, expect offense and a lot of it from the Pacers in the near future.

Every player on the Pacers gets a little more valuable now that Granger is no longer there to dominate minutes and shots. Here’s a breakdown of the major beneficiaries.

Troy Murphy (PF/C): Murphy battled a back injury earlier this season and the loss of Granger makes him a great buy-low option Ranked 36^th overall in the preseason projections, he’s set to be the Pacers’ go-to guy for a while.

Last season, Murphy averaged 14.3 points, 2.2 3-pointers and 11.8 rebounds per game. He shot .475 percent from the floor and .826 from the line. Those numbers combined with center eligibility are a rare combination.

While he’s off to a rough start, Murphy was projected for 13.2 points, 1.8 3-pointers, 10.2 rebounds and percentages of .465/.811 this season. Expect him ctually exceed those numbers until Granger returns.

Murphy has slowly been rounding into form with 42 points, 27 rebounds and seven 3-pointers in his last three games. It’s his team now.

T.J. Ford (PG): There’s no way around it, Ford’s season has been a disaster so far. The best way to chronicle his ineptitude is to post his stats next to the preseason projection:

Projections	.449	.855	0.5	15.2	3.4	6.1	1.3	0.2
Actual	.428	.742	0.9	9.6	3.8	2.9	0.8	0.2

I guess we should be happy his rebounds are up? Even Ford’s per minute numbers are ugly. He’s having the worst season of his career and his playing time is suffering as a result.

The good news is that Granger’s absence will put the ball in Ford’s hands more, which will give him added opportunities to produce. And he can’t possibly be worse than he has been.

Ford’s also a great buy-low option at this point and a ton of owners have probably cut him loose. He can be had cheaply but probably not for much longer.

Mike Dunleavy (SF): Dunleavy was one of the riskier picks in this year’s draft. He was hampered by a knee injury last season and there were no clear answers regarding the status of his knee around draft time. He was a “cross your fingers” type of pick.

Dunleavy returned a little over a week ago and has been solid in five games, averaging 12.2 points, 1.0 3-pointer, and 1.0 steal while playing just 20.8 minutes per game.

Coach Jim O’Brien has already said the Pacers are not willing to give Dunleavy more minutes yet. Dunleavy’s already taking plenty of shots while he’s out there, so his production won’t likely increase until his minutes do.

There will be a gradual increase in minutes, but it’s possible that by the time Dunleavy returns to full health, Granger may be back as well. Either way, Dunleavy remains a scenario where you just have to hope for the best.

Dahntay Jones (SG/SF): Perhaps the biggest surprise on Indiana’s roster thusfar, Jones has averaged 15.3 points and nearly one steal and one block this season. Nothing he has done in his career until this season indicated he could be this productive.

Jones will slide into Granger’s spot in the starting lineup. He has posted 16.8 points, 4.1 steals, 2.1 assists, 1.0 block and 0.9 steals per 36 minutes this season. His percentages .447/.819 are fine for a small forward, but it would be nice if he shot more 3-pointers (only 0.2 3-pointers per 36 minutes).

Jones will definitely provide some scoring bunch and some defensive stats but doesn’t rebounds, pass or shoot well enough to make him truly strong in any one category. Still, he should be snatched up in all leagues. 

Earl Watson (PG): Watson has actually provided better fantasy value than Ford this season, ranking 149^th in eight-category leagues according to Basketball Monster. Ford came in at 196^th.

And Watson is the one true barrier to Ford regaining his full value in the next few weeks. Watson is getting nearly as many minutes as Ford this season and has more with them.

But the simple fact remains: Ford is a better player than Watson. Six weeks of subpar play from Ford doesn’t change that. And furthermore, Watson is nursing a hamstring injury that may force him to miss the next few games, giving Ford a rock solid opportunity to turn things around.

Watson’s a decent player with an intriguing skill set but even if he starts getting 38 minutes per game, he’s fantasy value is limited.

Roy Hibbert (C)/Jeff Foster (C/PF): If Granger’s injury means more shots for Murphy, it also means Hibbert and Foster will have to do more dirty work on the inside for the Pacers.

Hibbert is the far better fantasy option and had a tremendous start to the season while Murphy was sidelined. He’s averaging 9.9 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per 36 minutes and is now in line to play more minutes once again.

In 15 games as a starter earlier this season, Hibbert averaged 9.5 points, 6.9 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game. Similar numbers could be in line for the next couple of months.

Foster’s value is always low because he doesn’t do anything but rebound. But boy, he does it well. He’s averaged 10 or more rebounds per 36 minutes in each of his 11 seasons, including 11.2 this season.

The presence of Hibbert will keep Foster from logging the major minutes he has in the past so the odds of him finding his way onto many fantasy teams are slim.

Brandon Rush (SG/SF): Rush may see some added minutes and is going to be put back into the starting lineup, according to O’Brien. He’s shown an intriguing ability to combine blocks, steals and 3-pointers but until his awful percentages (.408/.652) get better, he’s got a few too many holes to rely on full time.

The Fantasy Answer?

Iverson is smiling now. But what will he look like when Lou Williams comes back?

Can Allen Iverson’s season be anymore confusing? First, he had an undefined role as a member of the young but talented Memphis Grizzlies. An preseason injury was followed by brief stints in three games before he decided he was unhappy and leaving the team for “personal reasons”.

After being let out of his contract with Memphis and with no further offers, Iverson briefly retired. Now, he’s back with the Philadelphia 76ers following a tear-filled press conference on Thursday.

It all suits kind of drama that has followed Iverson throughout his career.

But what does it mean to fantasy owners now that the four-time scoring champion will be a full-fledged starter once again?

Despite an overall disastrous 2008-09 season in Detroit, Iverson still averaged 17.1 points, 4.9 assists and 1.5 steals per 36 minutes. He’ll essentially be taking the role of Lou Williams, who was playing superbly in 33 minutes per game but will miss the next eight weeks or so with a broken jaw.

Iverson should assimilate quickly and as long as Williams is out should exceed his preseason projections of 15.8 points, 4.6 assists and 1.3 steals. But that production will have an expiration date.

The interesting question will be what happens when Williams returns. Williams should return to a major role when healthy. But will Iverson lose minutes or be made into a sixth man? If that happens, will he revolt and leave the team? Even if he doesn’t lose minutes, will his statistical output be hampered by Williams’ return?

76ers coach Eddie Jordan is going to have to finesse that situation and it leaves Iverson’s fantasy value for the remainder of the season in flux.

The best play here is to hold on to Iverson for the next six weeks or so. As soon as his value peaks (when he’s averaging about 18 points per game or so), deal him away in a trade for a legit Top 75 player that fits your needs.

Williams’s value is likely not going to return to its pre-injury level, unfortunately. He’s got a ton of upside and was ranked 80^th prior to the season. But his further development can’t help but be negatively affected by Iverson’s arrival.

Unless, of course, Iverson sulks his way out of yet another city.

The Kidd’s Alright

My first fantasy basketball trade of the season went down this week as I dealt Vince Carter in exchange for Jason Kidd in my eight-category roto league. In the end, this trade was about my desperate need for assists and my having a few too many similar players.

With my three guard positions consisting of Joe Johnson, Eric Gordon and Carter, I was lacking a true point guard. My roster also contains Andre Miller and T.J. Ford, but neither is inspiring much confidence at the moment.

Johnson, Carter and Gordon are essentially the same player – lots of 3-pointers, great FT%, a bunch of points, some decent assists and some steals. I would certainly have preferred to deal Gordon, whom I judge to be the least valuable of the trio, bit his injury problems have made him difficult to deal.

There was no way I was trading Johnson, who is playing for a contract, so I regretfully parted ways with Carter.

Usually I like to ensure I’m getting the best player in any deal. By “best player” I’m referring to their placement on my preseason rankings. I had Carter at 20 and Kidd at 39 so I certainly lost a bit of value there.

But stacking up the projections for each player side-by-side, I was comfortable pulling the trigger: 

	G	FG%	FT%	3PG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG
Carter	77	.445	.810	1.6	19.8	5.0	4.5	1.0	0.4
Kidd	79	.400	.810	1.3	8.6	5.9	8.7	1.6	0.3

 

Kidd’s percentages are irrelevant, since he doesn’t take nearly enough shots to have an effect on a fantasy team. I’m losing a ton of points, but with Gordon, Johnson, Rudy Gay, Josh Smith, Chris Bosh and Michael Redd on the roster, I’m not likely to fall short in that department.

Kidd gives me slightly more rebounds and far more assists and steals – two categories in which I’m near the bottom of the league.

As far as what the former teammates have done thusfar this season, Kidd is ranked seventh in cumulative value in eight-category leagues while Carter, who has missed a few games with an ankle injury, is only 103^rd.

Even when it comes to per game value Kidd is way ahead at 14^th while Carter is just 78^th. I don’t necessarily expect these rankings to hold, but if they do I’m in great shape.

The numbers for both thusfar: 

	G	FG%	FT%	3PG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG
Carter	15	.409	.807	2.0	19.2	5.3	2.5	0.7	0.5
Kidd	19	.433	.900	2.1	8.6	5.6	9.1	1.8	0.5

 

As before, disregard Kidd’s percentages. What’s jarring is Carter’s lack of assists and Kidd’s proficiency from 3-point range. I’m hoping Kidd’s role with the retooled Mavericks allows him to maintain his 3-point pace, which would make the trade more than beneficial from my end.

The team’s current roster as it stands:

PG: Jason Kidd
SG: Eric Gordon
G: Joe Johnson
SF: Rudy Gay
PF: Paul Millsap
F: Josh Smith
C: Chris Bosh
C: Marc Gasol
U: Nate Robinson
U: T.J. Ford
BN: Andre Miller
BN: Shaquille O’Neal
BN: Michael Redd

Clearly, Ford and Miller need to sort themselves out, D’Antoni has to come to his sense regarding Robinson and Redd’s knee must heal for this team to win the title.

More on that in an upcoming post surveying my fantasy success after the first month.

Ron Artest: Providing Great Fantasy Team Names Since 1999

Better than Gatorade.

It usually takes me quite some time to think of a name for my fantasy teams. I’m often in the draft room with a team named “TBA” or “TBD”.

Sometimes, the makeup of roster dictates the team name. One season, a roster that had Jason Kidd, Dirk Nowitzki, Kirk Hinrich, Andrew Bogut and Manu Ginobili was named “4 ½ White Guys”. You get the idea.

The NBA is near-perfect for coming up with great fantasy names, because of the many varied characters in the league. But Ron Artest is in a class by himself.

Twice have I names teams after Artest. Once a team was named Tru Wariers, after the hilariously (and intentionally) misspelled words Artest had shaved into his head. Another was “Flying Plastic Cups” in reference to the famous brawl in Detroit.

Now, Artest has provided us with more fantasy team name fodder after admitting he used to drink during halftime when he was with the Bulls.

My recommended team name: Halftime Hennessey

Any other suggestions?

F@#! You Coach D’Antoni

Quickly Nate, while he's distracted give him a karate chop to throat and put yourself in the game!

Periodically an NBA coach implements a change in strategy that negatively impacts an otherwise valuable fantasy player. Such men must be dealt with harshly. The white hot spotlight currently belongs on New York Knicks’ coach Mike D’Antoni.

Listen, everyone understands Nate Robinson isn’t the most fundamentally sound player in the NBA. And we all know who does some dumb things, like taking mock shots at the opponent’s basket and trying to bounce a ball and catch for a dunk.

But Robinson also proved last season that he’s a legit NBA player and, arguably, the fourth-best player on the Knicks roster. After all, I DON’T RANK NBA SCRUBS IN MY PRESEASON TOP 75!!!

Chris Duhon is shooting 28 percent from the floor this season and Larry Hughes is under .400 (and that’s AFTER a great start to the season). In no way does Robinson playing 11 total minutes in two games make the Knicks a better team.

Robinson may be inconsistent and a knucklehead, but he also averaged 17.2 points per game on a team that won 32 games last season and then the Knicks RE-SIGNED him! He was hurt earlier this season and now D’Antoni apparently dropped him from the rotation for unspecified reasons.

The Knicks are on pace to win 22 games. So it would seem not playing their possibly-fourth-best player isn’t quite working out. Maybe D’Antoni should stop clinging to the hope that Duhon will somehow morph into Steve Nash.

A regular lineup of Robinson, Danilo Gallinari, Al Harrington, David Lee and Wilson Chandler is the Knicks best chance to complete by flat-out outscoring other teams. D’Antoni high-powered offensive “genius” doesn’t quite work with a point guard who can’t score.

The worst part of the situation is Nate is still producing while on the floor, averaging 17.9 points, 2.6 3-pointers, 5.2 assists and 1.0 steal per 36 minutes.

And yet his coach doesn’t see why playing him might a) give his team a better chance to win and b) potentially showcase the guy for a trade, since his contract expires after the season.

I still feel confident that Robinson will regain his fantasy value. The Knicks will fail even more miserably than usual giving major minutes to rookie Toney Douglas. Robinson will get major minutes again soon and make the most of them.

But for now, seriously D’Antoni, F@#! You.

Fire and Ice: Monta Ellis and Rudy Gay

Each week, we’ll examine two players that have gone in opposite directions in the past week previous week and their prospects for the immediate future.

Try not to look directly at Monta Ellis.

Fire: Monta Ellis

Following Stephen Jackson’s departure from the Golden State Warriors, much was made of the impact it would have the values of Stephen Curry, Anthony Randolph and Brandon Morrow.

It seems we all forgot to mention that Monta Ellis might go nuclear.

Over the past week, Ellis has averaged 30 points, 3.3 assists, 2.5 steals, 1.0 3-pointer and 0.8 blocks in four games. He has shot 53 percent from the floor and 88 percent from the line during that stretch.

Ellis has scored 34 points or more in four of his last six games and has been the second-best eight-category player over the past 10 days, according to Basketball Monster.

This pace is pretty much unsustainable for Ellis, who relies on speed and quickness and has to work – or at least outrun opposing defenses to score. He gets few easy jumpers because that’s not his style.

Still, it’s pretty clear he will remain a beneficiary of the Jackson’s absence and may finish the season as a Top 25 fantasy player. He’s not really a sell-high option unless you can land a first-round caliber player for him.

Ice: Rudy Gay

It seems I get fooled every time I start to believe in Gay (not that there’s anything wrong with that). Despite a subpar 2008-09 season, he was projected as a Top 30 player with expected averages of 19.0 points, 1.3 3-pointers, 5.7 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 0.9 blocks.

Those numbers seemed prescient after a hot start, but Gay has been providing 10^th-round value over the past week, averaging just 15 points on 43 percent shooting in four games.

The good news is that Gay still averaged more than one block and one steal per game. The bad news is that his .500-plus FG% is slipping and he has just 45 points with one 3-pointer in his last three games.

Still, my faith in Gay (insert joke here) remains high. He’s a multi-faceted fantasy asset that’s fully expect to finish among the Top 30 this season.

Be Thankful

Even in the insulated, relatively unimportant realm of fantasy basketball, there are plenty of things to be thankful for. Here are a few of mine …

… Allen Iverson for whining his way out of Memphis and not robbing shots and value from the likes of Rudy Gay and Marc Gasol.

… Gay for finally rewarding my faith in him after three seasons.

… Gasol for grabbing the white hot Spanish spotlight from his hamstrung brother. Best … 11th-round pick …. Ever.

… Josh Smith for finally realizing a player with his athletic ability should not be throwing up 3-pointers and shooting off-balance jumpers.

… Lou Williams for realizing his potential after Andre Miller cleared the way by defecting to Portland.

… Manu Ginobili for keeping the NBA arenas bat-free. What could be worse that finding out one of your players is out after getting bit by a bat. Thanks Manu!

… Matt Bonner for realizing that you’re only job is to launch 3-pointers and become a solid small-ball center.

… Lebron James. I don’t own him in any leagues but just imagining it makes me all fuzzy inside.

… Mike D’Antoni, Don Nelson, Kurt Rambis and any other coach whose team instantly turns their opponent into a fantasy cornucopia.

… Jason Kidd for retaining strong fantasy value even though he can no longer hit a shot from inside the 3-point line.

… Brandon Jennings and Tyreke Evans for significantly preying on the injured corpses of Michael Redd and Kevin Martin, respectively.

… J.R. Smith for taking on his phenomenal birth name of Earl Smith III.

On the flip side, when I visit the bathroom following the Thanksgiving feast, I will most likely be thinking about ….

… Devin Harris and his fragile frame.

… Stephen Jackson bitching his way out of a fantasy gold mine.

… Kirk Hinrich for slowly draining my faith in white people.

… T.J. Ford for somehow not producing offense on a team that plays no defense.

… Jeff Green for turning me from a non-believer into a believer. Until I drafted him.

… Raymond Felton for not yet proving I was right to call him a great buy-low option.

… Blowing my waiver wire priority on Redd only to see Ginobili, Andre Miller and Stephen Curry get dropped days later.

Then again, maybe this should be in the thankful section, as in thankful so many rival owners are self-destructing so early in the season.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Fire and Ice: Louis Williams and Chauncey Billups

Each week, we’ll examine two players that have gone in opposite directions in the past week previous week and their prospects for the immediate future.

Lou looks nervous. Probably because he knows he can't possibly keep shooting this well.

Fire: Louis Williams

Williams has been playing well all season but has been absolutely unstoppable over the past week, averaging 24.5 games, 2.8 3-pointers, 5.3 assists and 2.0 steals in his last four games.

Williams’ .571 FG% and .938 FT% during that span make him the third-best roto player over the past seven days, according to Basketball Monster. He’s jumped to 23^rd overall this season.

(NOTE: This was written BEFORE Tuesday’s game, when Williams scored 26 points on 10-of-17 shooting with four 3-pointers, five assists and one steal.)

Now as bizarre as this may seem, Williams scoring pace this season is actually behind last season’s, when he averaged 19.5 points per 36 minutes (this season: 17.5 per 36 minutes).

The difference lies in Williams playing 10 more minutes per game shooting 49 percent from the floor – a huge improvement over his .420 career shooting percentage. He is also shooting .827 from the line.

Now I’ll buy that Williams has become an 80 percent free-throw shooter. His career trend from the line in his first four seasons (.615/.696/.783/.790) shows gradual improvement.

But I am in no way believing that a 6-foot-2 point guard with a subpar shooting percentage has turned into a near 50 percent shooter from the floor. Not going to happen. He shot less than 40 percent from the floor last season and it’s just too far of a jump.

Furthermore, Williams is still only making 28 percent of his 3-pointers this season, so it’s not as if he’s become a sharpshooter.

There is little doubt that Williams’ time for fantasy relevance has arrived. Andre Miller’s departure made sure of that. The preaseason projections had him as an eighth-rounder with averages of 15.9 points, 5.0 assists 1.0 3-pointers and 1.3 steals with percentages of .412 from the floor .786 from the line.

I still expect him to land close to those numbers because he can not possible keep shooting this well. He’s definitely valuable, just not THIS valuable.

Ice: Chauncey Billups

Billups has provided just ninth-round value over the previous week. He’s not even averaging a single-double, posting just 8.6 points and 7.2 assists in his last five games.

Even though his free throw shooting has been an outstanding 94 percent during that span, he’s shooting less than 30 percent from the floor. He’s not even making up for it on the defensive end with just three steals.

Despite the dramatic slump, Billups is still 39^th overall in eight category leagues this season, according to Basketball Monster. His numbers (15.6 points, 1.6 3-pointers, 6.0 assists, 1.3 steals) are slightly below where they were projected (17.2/1.9/6.7/1.2) but a hot streak should bring them up to par.

Considering Billups has such an outstanding reputation, it’s far-fetched to think he’d be tradeable just because of one bad week. But there’s no harm in trying to try him from an owner who may not appreciate his usual consistency.

Jeffersonian Slump

While I still hold the belief that Al Jefferson remains a great buy-low candidate, there an interesting take on his situation over at True Hoop.

Could it be that the hopelessness of the Timberwolves situation has led Jefferson into a season-long malaise? Has he lost the fire to be great because his team can’t be?

If anything, you can forward this to the Jefferson owner in your league in attempt to shake his confidence and pry the big fella loose. At the very least, he’ll be undervalued going into next season.

Hey, it’s never too early to start thinking about next season. Ask the Nets and Knicks.

Lessons Repeatedly Learned

Some time ago in one of my 12-team/eight-category roto leagues, I grabbed Michael Redd off the waiver wire (why he was dropped, I can’t say). I immediately plugged him into one of my utility slots, well aware he wouldn’t play for a couple weeks.

Usually I don’t mind having “extra” games available at the utility position because it’s always easy to fill those spots as the season goes along and max out the games limit. Plus, with Eric Gordon, Nate Robinson and T.J. Ford also hurt, I was out of healthy bodies.

Over the past week the rumors swirled that Redd’s return from a sore knee was imminent. And yet, I left him sitting there in an active roster spot. As a result, I was “rewarded” on Monday with four points and two assists and a 1-of-6 performance from the free-throw line.

Redd – an 84 percent shooter from the line in 552 career games – missed FIVE free throws in one game.

It’s as if the Force that guides fantasy basketball decided to smack me in the face and remind me: never start a player in his first game back from an injury, especially when said player is an older veteran with a worrisome knee.

Cruel fate teaches yet another lesson in fantasy roster management.

Buying Low and Selling High: Larry Hughes and Raymond Felton

The next installment in the weekly feature: “Buying Low and Selling High”, in which I’ll discuss one player playing above their head and another whose best games are ahead.

The ref is signaling how long until Larry Hughes turns into a fantasy pumpkin.

What better parallel for “Buying Low and Selling High” than to highlight one player who started his career under Larry Brown and another currently playing for the well-traveled coach?

Larry Hughes began his career playing for Brown in Philadelphia. The notoriously inconsistent swingman is currently providing second-round value on the fantasy bonanza known as the New York Knicks.

Through nine games, Hughes is averaging 14.2 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.2 3-pointers and 2.2 steals in 34 minutes per game. He’s shooting 46 percent from the floor and 83 percent from the line.

While his scoring isn’t out of line from his career per minute averages, Hughes’ added value has come from his solid FG% and assist numbers. Neither, however, is likely to continue.

Hughes is a career 41 percent shooter from the floor and he has shot better than 43 percent just once in 12 seasons (2002-03 with Washington). He will – sooner rather than later – revert to his usual level of inefficiency.

Furthermore, the nebulous nature of the Knicks roster does not inspire much confidence for Hughes to remain this valuable. His excessive playing time has been a result of Nate Robinson’s injury and the struggles of Chris Duhon.

But Robinson has returned and Duhon will get better, especially after receiving a vote of confidence from coach Mike D’Antoni last week. Add to the mix the possibility of Allen Iverson joining the team, and Hughes really has nowhere to go but down.

You could fill an NBA arena with owners who have been disappointed by Hughes in the past. If you can get a fellow owner to buy into this being his career year, pull the trigger on a deal as soon as possible. The bottom tends to fall out of Hughes quickly.

Raymond Felton is currently serving as Brown’s point guard in Charlotte and is off to a rocky start. He’s averaging just 11.8 points, 5.2 assists and 1.2 steals with terrible percentages (.369/.741), which is a 13^th-round value according to Basketball Monster’s player rankings.

Felton’s average draft position in Yahoo! leagues was 112^th, which is in the ninth round of a 12-team league. My projections had him as a fifth-rounder, which was higher than most estimates but one I’m comfortable with. Either way, he’s been a disappointment.

The most surprising aspect of Felton’s performance thusfar is his FT%, which is well below his career number of .784. That number will improve and the addition of Stephen Jackson should help boost the team’s overall offense and influence Felton’s ability to register assists.

While he has failed to reach double figures in the last three games and has seven or more assists just three times in 11 games (he averaged seven assists per game last season), the time to buy on Felton is now.

Felton has been consistent in last three seasons, averaging between 14.0 and 14.4 points, 6.7 and 7.4 assists and shooting in the range of .797 and .805 from the line.

Despite a rough start, he will eventually find that consistency and remain a solid fantasy point guard. In fact, I think I’m going to try and make a deal for him in one of my leagues right now.