I’ve tried numerous methods for ranking players over the years. For a while I looked strictly at the rankings provided by other sources, eventually factoring in the average draft position of various fantasy websites. As I gained more knowledge I determined these methods to be ludicrous, mainly because I don’t trust the judgement of others.
What makes me think a player should be the fourth pick in a draft just because everyone else thinks so?
So for fantasy hoops season I’ve applied the guidelines I’ve used for fantasy baseball success: trust the numbers. I’ve devised my own projections using formulas I prefer to keep to myself. The players are ranked not just on per game totals, but expected season totals to factor in the probability of injury.
The shooting percentages of players who average less than 12 points per game have essentially been ignored since players with so few shot attempts have little effect on your team’s overall number. It’s the big scorers that move percentages.
Now, I realize my posting has been inconsistent but I would love to hear any thoughts on these. These will be used as my own personal guide while I draft this weekend.
You can take a look at the rankings/projections here. You’ll notice at the end of the projections is a category headed “TOT” which is essentially a player’s total score based on all the categories considered. The lower the number the better.
Keep in mind that these rankings are meant to compare each player’s projected statistical output which every other player in the league. Some point guards and centers may be slightly more valuable than they appear on these projections based on positional scarcity. Players are broken into groups of 12 as if they were rounds in a 12-team league.
A quick note on some of the more surprising revelations:
Chris Paul is ranked seventh. I was shocked by this but as I looked at the numbers, I think he may be overvalued. Yea, he’s a point guard but you can also draft Dwyane Wade to fill your point guard spot and I honestly feel Durant and Granger are more valuable overall. Still you can’t go wrong drafting him second.
Amare Stoudemire is a mid-second rounder. Another stunner but it makes sense. He doesn’t contribute a true center-level number of blocks, won’t average a double-double and is not an adept passer.
Andre Iguodala is a first-rounder. This was the biggest shocker of all for me since he’s coming off an erratic season. But with Andre Miller gone, Iguodala will be handing the ball more often and his combination of scoring, steals, assists and rebounds affected his rating in an extremely positive way, as it did for Brandon Roy.
Of course, drafting a fantasy hoops roto team is tremendously different from any other sport. As you draft players, the value of remaining players changes based on what categories your team needs. Even though these are my rankings, I’m likely to go with my guy in the first two rounds and then use the rankings to fill in the roster.
I have a feeling some of my first and second-rounders will still be around after 24 picks, making some of them potential third-round gifts.
I’m sure plenty of people would look at these rankings and say that I’m nuts, but I like it that way. I’d rather have wildly different standards of value instead of thinking the same way as the competition.
Because above all I trust the numbers, not the opinions of others.