Buying Low and Selling High: Larry Hughes and Raymond Felton

The next installment in the weekly feature: “Buying Low and Selling High”, in which I’ll discuss one player playing above their head and another whose best games are ahead.

The ref is signaling how long until Larry Hughes turns into a fantasy pumpkin.

What better parallel for “Buying Low and Selling High” than to highlight one player who started his career under Larry Brown and another currently playing for the well-traveled coach?

Larry Hughes began his career playing for Brown in Philadelphia. The notoriously inconsistent swingman is currently providing second-round value on the fantasy bonanza known as the New York Knicks.

Through nine games, Hughes is averaging 14.2 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.2 3-pointers and 2.2 steals in 34 minutes per game. He’s shooting 46 percent from the floor and 83 percent from the line.

While his scoring isn’t out of line from his career per minute averages, Hughes’ added value has come from his solid FG% and assist numbers. Neither, however, is likely to continue.

Hughes is a career 41 percent shooter from the floor and he has shot better than 43 percent just once in 12 seasons (2002-03 with Washington). He will – sooner rather than later – revert to his usual level of inefficiency.

Furthermore, the nebulous nature of the Knicks roster does not inspire much confidence for Hughes to remain this valuable. His excessive playing time has been a result of Nate Robinson’s injury and the struggles of Chris Duhon.

But Robinson has returned and Duhon will get better, especially after receiving a vote of confidence from coach Mike D’Antoni last week. Add to the mix the possibility of Allen Iverson joining the team, and Hughes really has nowhere to go but down.

You could fill an NBA arena with owners who have been disappointed by Hughes in the past. If you can get a fellow owner to buy into this being his career year, pull the trigger on a deal as soon as possible. The bottom tends to fall out of Hughes quickly.

Raymond Felton is currently serving as Brown’s point guard in Charlotte and is off to a rocky start. He’s averaging just 11.8 points, 5.2 assists and 1.2 steals with terrible percentages (.369/.741), which is a 13^th-round value according to Basketball Monster’s player rankings.

Felton’s average draft position in Yahoo! leagues was 112^th, which is in the ninth round of a 12-team league. My projections had him as a fifth-rounder, which was higher than most estimates but one I’m comfortable with. Either way, he’s been a disappointment.

The most surprising aspect of Felton’s performance thusfar is his FT%, which is well below his career number of .784. That number will improve and the addition of Stephen Jackson should help boost the team’s overall offense and influence Felton’s ability to register assists.

While he has failed to reach double figures in the last three games and has seven or more assists just three times in 11 games (he averaged seven assists per game last season), the time to buy on Felton is now.

Felton has been consistent in last three seasons, averaging between 14.0 and 14.4 points, 6.7 and 7.4 assists and shooting in the range of .797 and .805 from the line.

Despite a rough start, he will eventually find that consistency and remain a solid fantasy point guard. In fact, I think I’m going to try and make a deal for him in one of my leagues right now.

Fifth Quarter Strategy

With all the prep I do prior to the season to devise my own projections and rankings, I still ponder different ways to construct a team long after the season has started.

The most irritating thing is that it’s too late to even test the theory in an actual league. I’ll have to jot down the idea and wait until next year. I can’t handle it, I’m just not that patient.

When recently examining my 8-category roto league squad – which includes 11 players who were drafted and two picked up off waivers – I noticed that 11 of those players were ranked in the Top 97 of my preseason projections.

The other two players – Marc Gasol and Rafer Alston – are currently outperforming their projected value. Not a bad team for a league that drafted 156 players overall.

And yet, when I put the entire roster together and look at the projections, it still appears to fall short of what I think it will take to finish in first place. The team seems to be lacking slightly in FG% and assists and is quite a bit deficient in rebounds.

Of course, the team is still very capable of winning the league, but as it is currently constructed it is not a sure thing. And damnit I want security! Here’s a quick look at the roster:

Gs: Joe Johnson, Vince Carter, Eric Gordon, T.J. Ford, Nate Robinson, Michael Redd, Kirk Hinrich, Alston

Fs: Josh Smith, Rudy Gay, Paul Millsap, Carter, Redd

Cs: Chris Bosh, Gasol

Keep in mind, I’m not judging the team on it’s performance thusfar. The injuries to Carter, Gordon, Ford, Redd and Robinson make it impossible to judge the team’s full performance after just a few weeks.

But the team does reflect lack of rebounds and blocks as both my utility players are always guards. Smith by himself makes up for much of the blocks deficiency, but the shortfall in rebounds and assists are mainly attributed to the fact that I have few players who are projected to be leaders in those categories.

Bosh is the only player on the roster projected to finish in the top 25 in rebounds and Ford’s projected to lead the team in assists per game while ending the season 20^th in the NBA.

By drafting according to my projections, which reward multi-category balance above all else, I may have wound up with the most well-rounded players but lost out on those who dominant particular categories.

It often seems as if players like Marcus Camby, David Lee and Ron Artest get draft far too early because they contribute heavily in one of two categories. As a result, I was winding up with all-around contributors like Gordon, Gay and Millsap long after I thought they should have been drafted.

So now I’ve begun to ponder whether the best move is to target only those players who heavily dominate specific categories, essentially eliminating all others from the chance of being drafted. Unfortunately I can’t experiment with this in an actual draft, so I ran a test using my projections.

I reduced my draft list to only players projected to finish in the top 15 in each of the eight roto categories. The list was reduced to just 84 players:

Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Danny Granger, Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul, Brandon Roy, Dirk Nowitzki, Andre Iguodala, Johnson, Bosh, Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Garnett, Gerald Wallace, Smith, Chauncey Billups, Amare Stoudemire, Caron Butler, Pau Gasol, Howard, Deron Williams, O.J. Mayo, Manu Ginobili, Devin Harris, David West, Tim Duncan, Al Harrington, Troy Murphy, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Baron Davis, Al Jefferson, Rashard Lewis, Monta Ellis, Kevin Martin, Ben Gordon, Mo Williams, Ron Artest, Jason Richardson, Gilbert Arenas, Raymond Felton, Trevor Ariza, Steve Nash, Millsap, Jose Calderon, Nene, Lee, Blake Griffin, Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Derrick Rose, Brook Lopez, Andris Biedrins, Jameer Nelson, Zach Randolph, Luis Scola, Carlos Boozer, Ronnie Brewer, J.R. Smith, Redd, Anthony Randolph, Emeka Okafor, Tony Parker, Andrew Bogut, Tyrus Thomas, Kevin Love, Elton Brand, Mario Chalmers, Ramon Sessions, D.J. Augustin, Camby, Andrew Bynum, Shaquille O’Neal, Jermaine O’Neal, Peja Stojakovic, Rudy Fernandez, Kendrick Perkins, Chris Kaman, Danilo Gallinari, Tyson Chandler, Samuel Dalembert, Chris Andersen, Ronny Turiaf, Hasheem Thabeet

That’s a long list of both the game’s best players and one-dimensional role players expected to either make a lot of 3-pointers or block a lot of shots. If we reduce the list to players projected to finish in the top 15 in more than one category, we have only 30 players:

James, Granger, Wade, Paul, Nowitzki, J. Johnson, Bosh, Billups, Stoudemire, D. Howard, Harris, Duncan, Kidd, Davis, Jefferson, Kevin Martin, Arenas, Nash, Calderon, Lee, Griffin, Rondo, Allen, Lopez, Biedrins, Okafor, Bogut, Camby, Bynum, Stojakovic

There are some big names missing on that list but if you could wind up with 13 of those 30, you’d be in pretty good shape. Alas, that would be impossible. Instead, using only the larger list and looking at my league’s draft results, my team could have been:

Bosh, Johnson, Lewis, Josh Smith, Mayo, Kaman, Terry, Tyrus Thomas, Trevor Ariza, Shaquille O’Neal, Ronnie Brewer, Rudy Fernandez and Samuel Dalembert

Looking at the potential for the two teams considering their projections, here’s what it looks like: 

	FG%	FT%	3s	Pts	Reb	Asts	Stls	Blocks
Fake Team	.480	.751	0.83	15.47	6.20	2.45	1.17	0.95
Real Team	.462	.788	1.11	16.89	5.19	3.49	1.12	0.63

While it’s pretty close, this exercise makes me feel quite a bit better. My actual team has edge in four of the eight categories while the teams are nearly even in steals.

The hypothetical team is exceedingly poor in FT%, points and assists to the point where they’d likely finish in last place in those categories. The real team is much more balanced – a reflection of the strategy used.

Furthermore, the bench on the real team is stronger. Having to place Fernandez, Dalembert or Brewer in my lineup in case of injury is a shaky prospect. Having Redd, Hinrich and Alston is prefereable.

I exit this exercise feeling much better about my usual strategy of valuing balance above all else. Of course I’m always tinkering and the key is to find a way to properly value position scarcity and one-category dominance in a system that generously rewards more multi-talented players.

And clearly, I need another big man. Anyone want to make a trade?

Fire and Ice: Earl Watson and David West

Each Tuesday, we’ll examine two players that have gone in opposite directions in the previous week and their prospects for the immediate future.

Fire: Earl Watson

Not to toot my own horn, but Watson’s possible jump in value was explored when T.J. Ford was shockingly injured.

And while he’s played only two games in the past week, Watson is ranked as the 16^th-best fantasy player over the past week by Basketball Monster.

Watson’s true value is that he does a little big of everything and his stats reflect that: 14.0 points, 2.0 3-pointers, 5.0 assists, 4.0 rebounds 1.5 steals and 1.0 blocks with a .615 FG% and a .889 FT%.

Clearly, his numbers are not going to stay quite at that level. His percentages (.417/.708 career) are sure to drop and the blocks are a bit out of whack since he had two in one game – a rarity.

But the 3-pointers, rebounds, steals and assists are exactly what Watson can provide if he continues to get 30-plus minutes per game. He started on Saturday over Ford, who will likely battle injuries throughout the season as he normally does.

Ford’s health is the key. If he recovers to full health, Watson isn’t worth owning.

Ice: David West

It may be time for owners to start worrying about West, who is struggling on a team that is adjusting to a coaching team and will now have to play without Chris Paul.

West has played four games in the past week and despite averaging more than 33 minutes per contest has managed only 12.5 points and 0.3 blocks. His 8.8 rebounds per game were nice, but only helped him finish the week ranked 154^th by Basketball Monster.

The most alarming aspect is that West didn’t have one solid all-around game. He scored 17, 10, 15 and 8 and only registered one block and one steal during the whole stretch.

West isn’t going to play this poorly the entire season, but with Byron Scott fired and Paul out for a month, it may take a while. It’s probably a good time to buy low if you need a solid forward.

West was ranked as a third-rounder in the preseason projections and he’s sure to bounce back from the slow start to post respectable numbers.

Basketball Monster rankings involve FG%, FT%, Pts, Rebs, Asts, Stls and Blks.

Does Goes Speights, Up Comes …. Jason Smith?

After all but writing off Elton Brand for dead last week, it seems his value got an enormous boost when Mareese Speights, who had been thriving this season, was lost for two months with a knee injury.

But instead of reading about an opportunity for Brand to reclaim his spot in the Sixers’ frontcourt, it seems that Jason Smith may be in the starting lineup for Philadelphia on Wednesday.

So exactly who is Smith and should he be paid attention to in fantasy leagues?

Smith is a 7-footer drafted by the Miami Heat in 2007 and then sent to Philadelphia in a draft-day trade for Daequan Cook. He’s played limited minutes in 83 games with the Sixers over the past one-plus seasons.

The results are nothing to get thrilled about. Per 36 minutes, Smith has averaged 10.9 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.6 blocks and has shot just 44 percent from the floor and 67 percent from the line. Interestingly enough, he is 8-for-24 from 3-point range in his career, which quite a few attempts for a 7-footer in limited time.

Smith appears to have a curious skill set and may be able to contribute in blocks while chipping in some rebounds and 3-pointers with significant playing time.

But he’s certainly not worth grabbing off the waiver wire right away and it will speak volumes about Brand’s seeming expendability if Smith is in the starting lineup on Wednesday.

The Bobcats Add Some Crazy

Stephen Jackson got an early Christmas gift and was finally traded. What could go wrong?

After weeks of trying to move disgruntled swingman Stephen Jackson, the Golden State Warriors sent their “captain” and point guard Acie Law to the Charlotte Bobcats in exchange for Raja Bell and Vladimir Radmanovic on Monday.

Leaving the Warriors never really helps anyone’s fantasy value. Although Jackson was unhappy with Golden State, he’s never averaged more than 18.7 points or 3.8 assists anywhere else. If you drafted him based on his numbers from the last two seasons, he’s unlikely to meet those expectations.

With Golden State, Jackson was used as a hybrid point guard/shooting guard/small forward for a team that loves to run and shoot in bunches. Charlotte plays a much more deliberate pace under coach Larry Brown and averages less than 93 points per game in the past two seasons.

Jackson will help the team’s offensive numbers, but there are less shots for him to share with the likes of Raymond Felton, Gerald Wallace, D.J. Augustin and Boris Diaw. He will still be an impact fantasy player, but he’s probably no longer worth the fifth-round price you may have paid.

Expect Jackson to finish near his career per minute numbers of 17 points, 1.5 3-pointers, 4.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.5 steals. Those are fine, but a notch below the 18.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1.7 steals that were projected prior to the season.

If you can unload Jackson on someone who thinks this move will resurrect his value and can get a Top 50 player in return, it would be a smart move. He had 13 points on 4-of-14 shooting, nine rebounds and two assists in 45 minutes in his Charlotte debut on Monday.

Of course, the other aspect of the move is that Jackson is not likely to be very happy on a mediocre-or-worse Charlotte team with a coach who does not always have the best relationships with his players.

As for Bell, it’s going to be a wait and see situation. On one hand, Bell’s entire fantasy value lies in 3-pointers and he’s gone to a team that loves to shoot threes. On the other hand, his defensive-minded style may not be suited for Golden State up-tempo pace and he’ll be competing with Monta Ellis, rookie Stephen Curry and Corey Maggette for minutes.

It’s going to take a couple of weeks to see how Bell’s role evolves with the Warriors, but for a player who was pegged as a 14^th-rounder in the preseason projections, there are better options available.

Filling out the trade were veteran shooter Radmanovic, who may average between one and two 3-pointers per game with Golden State, even if he gets limited minutes. But he doesn’t being much else to the table and is waiver wire fodder for those who are (REALLY) desperate for 3-pointers.

Law was a promising draft pick for the Atlanta Hawks two seasons ago and got only limited opportunities in two seasons. Traded to the Warriors in the offseason for Jamal Crawford, he’s already been shipped out after playing just five games.

Law has shown some ability in his brief playing time, averaging 5.5 assists and 1.1 steals per 36 minutes in 116 career games. But he won’t make a fantasy impact playing behind Felton, Augustin and Flip Murray unless an injury thrusts him into a more prominent role.

Rookie Spotlight: Tyreke Evans

As a companion piece to my weekly “Rookie Report” at the Fantasy Basketball Report, each Friday a different rookie will be looked at in-depth.

Milwaukee Bucks guard Brandon Jennings has taken the NBA by surprise this season, getting off to a great start after just one season in Europe. But he was actually eclipsed in rookie value over the past week by Sacramento’s Tyreke Evans, who is quickly making the most of Kevin Martin’s extended absence.

The Kings are an awful team that entered the season relying on enormous production from Martin and young forwards Spencer Hawes and Jason Thomson as well as free agent veteran Andres Nocioni.

Hawes has struggled, Nocioni has gotten into some trouble after driving drunk and Martin is out for the next two months with a fractured left wrist. The Kings are a team screaming for some one to grab the reins and Evans has obliged.

In his last four games, Evans is averaging 22.5 points, 0.8 3-pointers, 5.5 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 1.8 steals per game. His .403 FG% during that span is to be expected as his attempts increase but he is solid from the line, shooting .868 in 9.5 attempts per game.

Basically, he’s been a Top 25 player over the past two weeks – a remarkable feat for a rookie.

Evans’ numbers are a little inflated from what to expect for the remainder of the season. Soon, opponents will make some adjustments and find his weaknesses. And Martin will eventually return and get a majority of the Kings’ shots.

But Evans will be one of the most valuable rookies over the next couple of months and is gaining experience that will make him an impact player for the remainder of the season.

Duhon Not Done

After much speculation of a shakeup in the Knicks lineup, Mike D’Antoni gave starting point guard Chris Duhon a vote of confidence on Thursday. That’s good news for the owners of Duhon, who is off to a horrid start.

In his first nine games, Duhon is averaging just 6.7 points on 39 percent shooting and has made only 8-of-37 3-pointers. The upside is he’s contributing 5.1 assists and nearly a steal per game and his per minute assist numbers are pretty in line with his career averaged. It seems he’s just in a terrible shooting slump.

Duhon’s preseason projections were 9.2 points, 6.2 assists, 0.8 steals and 1.4 3-pointers with a .419 FG% and an .841 FT%. Those numbers in a projected 76 games marked him as a 13^th-round value, which makes him a backup guard.

While his shooting percentage will get better, it won’t be good this season. So I don’t recommend dumping Duhon, especially since D’Antoni is going to stick with him.

The interesting aspect of the Knicks sticking with Duhon will be the impact it has on rookie Toney Douglas once Nate Robinson returns from an ankle injury.

Douglas has been among the top three or four rookies over the past week, averaging 15.8 points and 2.3 3-pointers on 59 percent shooting in his last four games. In his last two games, including a start on Wednesday, he has scored 44 points combined.

While Douglas has made a brief impact, he will eventually struggle, as all rookies do. And he’s unlikely to eclipse Robinson, who is one of the Knicks’ best players and is projected to average 16.5 points, 1.8 3-pointers, 3.8 assists and 1.2 steals.

Douglas just isn’t ready for that time of consistent production yet.

Buying Low and Selling High: Al Jefferson and Andrew Bynum

This is the first installment of the season of what I hope will be a weekly feature: “Buying Low and Selling High”, in which I’ll discuss a player who is playing above their head and a player whose best games are ahead.

No, Andrew. The return of Pau is lurking over your OTHER shoulder.

It’s hard to find a pair of young big men with futures brighter than Al Jefferson and Andrew Bynum, but thusfar it seems they are on a teeter-totter, with one soaring his value while the other plummets and has owners concerned.

Bynum has exceeded all expectations thusfar. The preseason projections forecasted averages of 14.3 points, 8.3 rebounds and 1.9 blocks. His projection of just 64 games played dropped him to an 11^th-round draft pick.

Two weeks into the season, Bynum has been a Top 20 player, posting 20 points, 10.6 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.2 blocks in 40 minutes per game. He has missed two games with an elbow injury but is expected to return tonight and play well over 30 minutes.

The primary reason for Bynum emergence has been the absence of Pau Gasol, who has yet to play this season due to a hamstring injury. Bynum has had the post to himself and has made the most of it. But it also makes him a perfect sell-high candidate, because it’s a risky proposition to expect this to continue.

Firstly, the return of Gasol – whenever that will be (LINK) – will eliminate some of Bynum’s chances. But more worrisome is that Bynum has missed 81 regular season games since the start of the 2007-08 season and has never averaged more than 29 minutes per game.

There is just no reason to believe Bynum can handle this workload for a full NBA season and remain healthy. His minutes will drop, his opportunities will diminish and his numbers will drop – and he’ll probably get hurt, too.

If it’s possible to trade Bynum for a legitimate second or third-rounder (Deron Williams, Andre Iguodala, Joe Johnson, etc.), that’s a trade I would make in a heartbeat.

As for Jefferson, offseason knee surgery has manifested itself in a slow start for the 24-year-old, who is averaging just 15.1 points and 6.1 rebounds – roughly a 10^th round value for a player who was likely a Top 25 pick.

In fact, Jefferson’s ADP in Yahoo! leagues was 14.8, which is ludicrous. Coming off such a surgery, my projections for Jefferson had him as a fourth-rounder, averaging 23.7 points, 11.1 rebounds and 1.7 blocks while missing 10 games.

Jefferson’s poor FT% for a player who takes nearly five attempts per game really hurt his rankings. He’s got all the ability to be one of the Top 30 players in fantasy basketball.

Jefferson has looked slow and a bit wobbly through nine games and owners may be getting a little nervous, which makes him a great buy-low option. Of course, there is the risk that the knee won’t come around and Jefferson may be on the verge of a lost season.

But that’s why it’s “buy-low” and not “buy-in-exchange-for-your-third-best-player.”

Fallout Boy: Broken Down Ford

As if the start of T.J. Ford’s season wasn’t disappointing enough, his recent resurgence was cut short on Wednesday. After scoring six early points he was removed from the game due to back spasms and will be considered day-to-day.

Injuries are always a lingering threat with Ford, who has never played more than 75 games in a season and has missed more than 25 games twice in his five-year career. Ford was projected to play 73 games this season.

It’s too early to tell how long the injury will linger, but Ford doesn’t exactly have the reputation as a quick healer. His absence will provide ample extra opportunities for Brandon Rush and Earl Watson.

Rush has struggled with an ankle injury to start the season but has reached double figures in two of his last three games. He had 11 points and seven rebounds and nailed a pair of 3-pointers after Ford’s departure on Wednesday.

Even with excessive minutes, Rush’s only asset in his ability to make roughly 1.5 3-pointers per 36 minutes. His percentages are poor and he’s not enough of a facilitator to contribute in asssists.

That brings us to Watson, who played superbly after Ford’s demise. Watson played a season-high 35 minutes – one more than Rush – and had a season-high 16 points with six rebounds, three assists and three steals. He made 4-of-6 shots, including three 3-pointers, and 5-of-6 free throws.

Before getting too excited, it must be noted that the game was against the Golden State Warriors, who are the fantasy equivalent of the Golden Goose. Which I think makes the Knicks something like Jack’s magic beans, but I digress.

Watson’s per minute numbers have always been intriguing. For his career, he’s averaging 11.6 points, 7.3 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.1 3-pointers per 36 minutes. His lifetime percentages of .416/.706 are bad, but it with minutes he’s a solid fantasy point guard equivalent to an 11^th or 12^th round draft pick.

Of course, his value now and for the remainder of the season remains entirely dependant on Ford’s recovery. But Watson could be a nice fill-in in the interim and an interesting handicap for the injury-prone throughout the season.

J.R. Smith Has Returned, Enjoy the Bench Ty Lawson

J.R. “Earl” Smith “III”* returned to the Nuggets on Tuesday after serving a seven-game suspension to start the season for a reckless driving conviction. He played 29 minutes off the bench, managing just five points on 1-of-9 shooting in 29 minutes.

Smith’s performance wasn’t all that noteworthy except for the effect that it had on the minutes of rookie Ty Lawson, who scored eight points in 18 minutes. Lawson averaged 26 minutes through Denver’s first three games and more than 22 per minutes entering Tuesday’s game.

It’s a little too early to tell whether Lawson’s minutes will remain less than 20 minutes on a regular basis. But his value has been adversely affected by Smith’s return. He has managed just double digits in scoring once in the past five games and the probability of his reduced minutes plus the normal rookie inconsistencies are warning signs.

In all but keeper leagues, it’s time to cut ties with Lawson. If you’re in a league with a deep bench, holding on to Lawson in case of an injury to Smith or Chauncey Bullups may be wise.

* In all honesty, I think Smith’s decision to go by the moniker Earl Smith III is a huge improvement. Guys with abbreviated names are nothing but trouble. J.R. Rider, A.J. Pierzynski ….. um, B.J. Surhoff ….. F.P. Santangelo. You get the idea.

Elton Brand: Slumping, Hurt or Done?

 

This is not the expression of a content individual.

 

Less than 1 ½ seasons in, it’s pretty clear that the Philadelphia 76ers’ signing of Elton Brand is a complete disaster. Once one of the elite power forwards in the ultra-talented Western Conference, it seemed Brand’s transition to the smaller Eastern Conference would give him a boost as he returned from 2007’s Achilles’ injury.

However, Brand struggled from the start last season and posted just 13.8 points and 8.8 rebounds before a shoulder injury shut him down for the season. It seems those who thought Brand would be a beast in the East were completely and totally off base. Morons!

It just seems Brand does not fit with Philadelphia – a development so obvious that his minutes have begun to shrink. That’s something of a surprise considering the new offense installed by coach Eddie Jordan should fit a big man like Brand, who passes well and can shoot a midrange jumper.

However, perhaps the Brand that passes well and shoots a nice mid-range jumper is gone for good. His assist and turnover percentages are currently the worst of his career and his true shooting/effective field goal percentages are a far cry from his prime with the Clippers.

Brand has played less than 30 minutes in five consecutive games, playing less than 20 twice during that span. And foul trouble was not a factor in any of those games. It simply appears that the Sixers are more comfortable playing a smaller, more athletic lineup that better suits Marreese Speights than Brand.

It’s already at the point where we have to ask whether Brand is in a slump, still recovering from his injuries or finished as a fantasy force?

My preseason projections had Brand pegged as a mid-8^th rounder with averaged of 16.3 points, 8.6 rebounds and 1.7 blocks. Nice numbers, but hardly All-Star caliber and his mediocre .475 FG% and poor .716 FT% along with 14 projected games missed hurt his value.

At this point, Brand owners would kill for him to wind up with 8^th-round value. He’s currently averaging 10.1 points and 5.6 rebounds with more steals (1.1 per game) than blocks (0.9), which puts him at 120^th overall in eight-category leagues, according to Basketball Monster’s payer rater.

Keeping in mind that his .833 FT% – which is nearly .100 percentage points better than his career average – is likely to plummet, he’s performing like a player who should barely have been drafted.

That has got to hurt for most owners since Brand’s average draft position in Yahoo! leagues was 39^th overall. Personally, I’m not sure what those owners were thinking, but thusfar it has been an awful return on their fourth-round investment.

While it’s possible that Brand may still be getting into game shape following two seasons of serious injury, he’s clearly on the downslide. His only chance and regaining superb fantasy value is to wind up on a team that makes him the focal point. That team would certainly be making a foolish move, but it would revitalize his fanttasy prospects.

Brand is definitely a buy-low option at the moment, but I’m talking REALLY low. As in try and acquire him for a player you’re thinking of dropping. Because unless an injury befalls Speights, the Sixers seem to have learned that Brand is not the $80 million answer.

Brandon Jennings: Great Rookie or GREATEST Rookie?

As a cautious fantasy owner, it’s important never to over-react to early season trends. Making roster moves based on short-term success can provide disastrous later on in the season and you need to keep a clear view of the full, 82-game picture.

With that said, Brandon Jennings is the GREATEST ROOKIE IN THE HISTORY OF THE NBA!

OK, all hyperbole aside, the argument can be made that Jennings is off to the best career start in NBA history. After dropping 25 points and four assists at Chicago on Tuesday, Jennings is currently ranked 23^rd in nine-category leagues by Basketball Monster.

Jennings is averaging 22 points, 2.3 3-pointers, 5.3 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 1.7 steals in his first three NBA games. His .481 FG% is a little misleading since he has only shot better than 44 percent once and his 70 percent FT% is disappointing for a point guard.

However, pieces keep falling into place for Jennings to continue his success. Michael Redd is already dealing with soreness in his balky left knee and will miss at least two weeks. My guess is he will be lucky to play 40 games this season.

Luke Ridnour has been reduced to just 14 minutes per game as he makes way for the rise of Jennings, who is poised to become the leader of the Bucks. Make no mistake, Milwaukee sucks, but Jennings will get almost unlimited opportunities to be their stud.

Entering the season, it was impossibly difficult to make projections for Jennings. How can you possibly predict how a player will play in the NBA when his only post-high school experience was playing sparingly in Europe?

Based on the early evidence, it would appear Jennings can score, shoot from long range and has a nose for the ball. However, his 54 shot attempts in three games also indicated he’s something of a chucker. That tendency will only get worse without Redd and his FG% percentage will likely settle somewhere around 43 percent. There will be some very shaky 4-for-20 nights in his immediate future.

But the prospects of Redd’s absence and the lack of competition at the guard position in Milwaukee make Jennings a great pickup for the remainder of the season. He won’t remain a Top 25 player but could see him finishing the season in the Top 75.

It would help if he got better from the line, though.

Another Bucks player to keep an eye on is Hakim Warrick, who I have blogged about so many times it’s surprising he hasn’t asked me be to be his agent.

Through 310 career games, Warrick is averaging 16.9 points, 7.2 points and 0.8 steals per 36 minutes with a .497 FG%. Based on those numbers, you will think some NBA team would have just signed him and given him 30 minutes per game by now.

Well perhaps that time is now as Warrick – finally free from the dungeon that was the Grizzlies’ bench – has played 30-plus minutes in each of Milwaukee’s last two games. And he not-so-surprisingly has averaged 16 points and 7.5 rebounds – almost exactly in line with his averages noted above.

At this point, far be it for me to proclaim Warrick to be a worthy fantasy pickup. He’s not quite there yet and it’s going to take a lot more evidence to make me change my mind. But he’s worth keeping an eye on, even if it takes a few years to finally pay off.

Net Loss

In January I posed the question as to whether Devin Harris was becoming injury prone. He played in only 69 games last season after managing only 64 during the 2007-08 season, but was still highly-coveted entering this season as primary offensive weapon on the New Jersey Nets.

Harris was projected as a third-rounder with forecasted averages of 21.4 points, 6.5 assists, 1.6 steals and one 3-pointer with an .822 FT% in 73 games. Even factoring in a projection of nine missed games, he still figured to be a valuable asset.

But Harris is already sidelined with a groin problem for which he has seen a specialists. Frankly, it gives me chills whenever one of my fantasy players sees a specialist. It’s almost never good. Think early 2000’s Grant Hill or – for you baseball fans – Mike Hampton.

It could be a devastating loss if not for the fact that the Nets have a couple of built in replacements ready to go. Harris owners should act quickly.

Veteran point guard Rafer Alston, who was acquired in the offseason trade that sent Vince Carter to Orlando, filled in on Saturday with 20 points, eight assists and one steal. He made 8-of-11 shots from the floor, including three 3-pointers. He followed that up an awful game on Monday (two points on 1-of-8 shooting), but his prospects are still good.

Even with Harris in the lineup, Alston was projected to be an 11^th rounder with averages of 10.1 points, 1.4 3-pointers, 4.2 assists and 1.2 steals. He would have already been a valuable guard off the bench for any fantasy team.

With starters’ minutes, Alston is going to be a nice fill in piece for the next couple of weeks and a much-needed handicap for anyone that owns Harris for the remainder of the season. He will kill you in FG% (projected: .402), especially if he tries to take the Nets’ offense into his own hands, but he can produce across the board in the usual point guard categories.

Alston’s career per minutes averages are 12.8 points, 6.1 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.9 3-pointers per 36 minutes. Even with his .386 career FG% and .730 FT%, those numbers can provide short-term help.

Another intriguing but less-proven commodity is Chris Douglas-Roberts, who scored 25 points in 38 minutes on Saturday and added 20 points in 39 minutes on Monday. CDR has made 50 percent of his shots from the floor and 88 percent from the line, displaying an aggressive mentality that got him to the line 17 times in the last two games.

CDR played in 44 games as a rookie last season and his per minute averages were decent, but not overwhelming: 13.3 points, 3.2 assists and .7 steals per 36 minutes. Most of his added value thusfar this season has come from his strong FG%, which will not last.

However, the Nets are young and will give the athletic CDR plenty of chances to make an impact. He’s not a recommended pickup in standard leagues but worth keeping an eye on.

Sibling Swap

Rarely – if ever – has a pair of brothers had as big an impact on fantasy hoops than Pau and Marc Gasol in the first week of the 2009-10 season. I don’t think fantasy basketball was big was Dominque and Gerald Wilkins played, the Barry brothers were never big fantasy assets, Horace and Harvey Grant were uninspiring and the O’Bannon’s were both flops.

But Pau Gasol entered this season as a highly-coveted second or third rounder and his younger brother Marc was a sure-fire late-rounder at a thin center position. Both have made some waves early in the season for opposite reasons.

Pau Gasol has missed the Los Angeles Lakers’ first two games with a hamstring injury and is reportedly frustrated with the lack of progress he is making in his recovery. He was projected to play 77 games this season and hamstring injuries have a way of lingering, so there is no telling how long it will take for him to be at full strength.

This is a huge issue for owners of Pau, who averages close to a double-double with excellent percentages. He’s also projected to hand out 3.5 assists per game – a stellar amount for a center-eligible player.

Pau is truly irreplaceable on a fantasy roster, although is absence has led to strong starts from both Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom, both of whom are exceeding their projected value.

Meanwhile, Marc is averaging 19 points, 12.3 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and one steal while shooting 65 percent from the floor and 85 percent from the line. It’s as if Pau transferred his abilities into the body of his younger sibling.  

Pau and Marc's story will complete the trilogy.

It’s too early to get overly excited. After all, Marc was projected to average 11.9 points and 7.4 rebounds with 1.1 blocks. But he’s almost untradeable at this point because you just have to see where this thing goes.

On the downside, the human vortex of shot attempts known as Allen Iverson returned for the Grizzlies on Monday and is already complaining about playing time. No telling how that will affect the Memphis offense, but it’s a fair bet that a few of Marc’s opportunities will vanish as Iverson begins to get more touches.

Still, at this point in the season, Marc’s owners have to be optimistic while Pau’s owners are probably a little nervous.

Expanding the Empire

For those who enjoy my literary stylings, please view my contributions to the website Fantasy Basketball Report. My first installment of the Rookie Report was posted yesterday and there will be a new installment each Friday morning.

Unlike fantasy baseball, which has enough websites and blogs to make you dizzy, Fantasy Basketball Report is a strong addition to the slowly growing (but still small) number of credible fantasy hoops resources.

Enjoy!

First Impressions

 

Chris Kaman. The hair is gone but the fantasy value remains.

It’s extremely important not to overreact to anything that happens early in the season. DeJuan Blair will not average a double-double this season, Danilo Gallinari will not hit seven 3-pointers per game and Yi Jianlian is not going to be a fantasy stud.

 With that said, here are a few observations from the first few days of NBA action.

Amare Stoudemire played 40 minutes in the Suns season opener and managed only 16 points, five rebounds, one block and six turnovers. Stoudemire was a second-rounder in my preseason rankings and I’m not high on him this season.

Stoudemire doesn’t rebound or block shots like Dwight Howard and doesn’t score like Lebron James. His percentages are great, but his injury history and current unhappiness in Phoenix make him a worrisome fantasy player early this season.

Chris Kaman has been an absolute beast in his first two games, averaging 20 points and 12.5 rebounds while shooting 53 percent from the floor. These numbers are quite inflated compared to my projections of 11.6 points and 8.3 rebounds.

However, the absence of Blake Griffin has boosted Kaman’s usefulness for the time being. Until Griffin returns, expect Kaman to settle in around 15 points and 10 rebounds if he can stay healthy and he’s a must add if he wasn’t drafted.

Elton Brand continued his two-year trend of awful with just eight points on 2-of-7 shooting with six rebounds and one block. It appears he just doesn’t fit in with the rest of the 76ers roster and may never revert to his pre-Philadelphia form.

Some drafts I participated in had Brand going in the third round. My projections had him as a ninth rounder. After one game, I win. But, like I said, don’t read too much into the first few games and weeks.

Matt Bonner has started at center for the Spurs in each of their first two games. Bonner is no fantasy stud, but if you have a small ball team in a head-to-head league you at least have to take a look at him as a backup center.

Blair’s 14-point, 11-rebound debut was followed up with six points and four rebounds on Thursday. His season will likely be all over the map since he is a rookie, but the potential for more minutes as Tim Duncan the Spurs vets get rest later on makes him a worthy add.

Gallinari’s seven 3-pointers were tremendous, but consider he took 13 total shot from beyond the arc and attempted only one two-pointer in a game where the Knicks were trailing throughout.

The point is that Gallinari was in a situation where he could attempt to shoot the Knicks back into the game, especially since Al Harrington and Nate Robinson were playing so poorly.

Gallinari was somewhere around a 13^th-rounder in the preseason rankings with projections of 11.5 points and 2.2 3-pointers per game. In a Mike D’Antoni system that seems plausible but he has yet to prove he can play inside and contribute in other categories.

If you need 3-pointers, he’s worth stashing early in the season, but there are bound to be wild ups and downs. Plus, his lingering back problems could surface and any minute. Approach with caution.

The Final Countdown

Blake Griffin dunking. Don’t get used to it, we won’t be seeing it for a while.

 

We are less than 12 hours from the start of the NBA season. Over the last few weeks, we’ve been bombarded news regarding players having one ailment or another.

The preseason is a time when every hangnail or sore throat becomes valid reason for a player to be sidelined for a week. There are so many “injury” reports during this time period that paying too much attention will make you wary of drafting anyone.

Well now that NBA and fantasy rosters are set, we finally have a clearer picture of which players have injuries that will make you start tearing your hair out right from the start. 

Blake Griffin (SF/PF): Griffin has a stress fracture in his kneecap (link) and could miss the first six weeks of the season. Even if he returns more quickly, he’ll basically be starting from scratch with his conditioning, which means he won’t be up to full speed until December. Not good.

Griffin was 62^nd in my roto rankings. He was expected to post solid averages of 16.7 points and 6.8 rebounds per game while chipping in close to one steal and one block.

But my rankings are not based only on averages but on projected season totals (projected per game averages times projected games played). His outlook was for 77 games. He is going to fall far short.

Griffin will be lucky to reach 60 games this season and only two players projected to play less than 60 games were included in my rankings. Those players were Mike Dunleavy (52 games, ranked 150th) and Tracy McGrady (46 games, ranked 146^th).

Basically, Griffin has slipped into the realm were he was borderline draftable. But if you have him, he’s worth hanging on to for his potential second half value. In the meantime, Chris Kaman and Al Thornton become more valuable since Griffin won’t be there to steal frontcourt minutes.

Don’t expect any marginal Clippers like Craig Smith or DeAndre Jordan to contribute anything other than the occasional solid game. They are not worth picking up unless it’s a very deep league.

Baron Davis (PG): In more Clippers news, Davis is questionable for the team’s season opener with a foot injury.  Davis is projected to miss 12 games this season, so the odd injury is going to happen and it doesn’t appear to be serious.

However, as long as he’s out, the value of Eric Gordon (already ranked 22^nd) rises even further. Sebastian Telfair could also find some value in assists and steals, but don’t expect it to be a long-term pickup. Davis will be back soon.

Pau Gasol (PF/C): Gasol is a game-time decision for the Lakers with a hamstring injury. This injury isn’t considered terribly serious, but hamstring injuries to have a tendency to linger.

Obvious his absence would mean a huge boost for Andrew Bynum, who will play despite preseason shoulder problems.

Bynum, however, is projected to miss 18 games this season due to his inability to stay healthy in his short career.

Derrick Rose (PG): Rose is dealing with an ankle injury and his status for the season opener is up in the air. Even if he plays, it’s likely to be in a reduced role. Rose’s ranking of 69 was based on him playing 79 games and even if he reaches that number, he is starting the season cautiously.

This has echoes of Deron Williams’ situation from last season. Williams was drafted not expecting to miss many games due to a preseason ankle problem but struggled from the start and didn’t start playing like a Top 25 player until December.

Kirk Hinrich, who I seemed to like more than most with a ranking of 96^th, may get off to a solid start as a result of Rose’s ankle.

Josh Howard (SG/SF): Ranked 70^th overall in the roto rankings, Howard is slowly recovering from offseason wrist and ankle surgery. His impending recovery has been delayed time and time again and now the Mavericks are saying he might miss the first few weeks of the season.

Based on the surgery, Howard was projected to miss nine games this season. But he was expected to be healthy to start. Bad news if you drafted Howard, great news if your drafted Shawn Marion, Drew Gooden or Tim Thomas – all of whom might see some increased value.

Glen Davis (SF/PF): Davis wasn’t drafted in many leagues, but his season-ending-before-it-began thumb injury will have some fantasy impact. It means larger-than-expected roles for Rasheed Wallace and Kendrick Perkins. The Celtics didn’t have a lot of size to begin with and now will need as many minutes as possible from their veteran big men.

Al Jefferson (PF/C): He will play. That was a close one.

Kevin Love (PF/C): Jefferson’s teammate was less lucky as Love will miss the first two months of the season following hand surgery. All of a sudden, Ryan Gomes looks palatable.

Raja Bell (SG): Even when he was projected to play 74 games, Bell was 164^th in the roto rankings. My system does not look favorably upon one-cat wonders. So the loss of Bell for as many as four months after wrist surgery isn’t a roto tragedy.

However, his absence means increased production for Raymond Felton and D.J. Augustin, both of whom are superior players. Bobcats coach Larry Brown has a way of favoring less-productive veterans over more-talented youngsters so clearing Bell from Augustin’s path is especially helpful.

Augustin was ranked at 112 and while he doesn’t become a Top 50 player by any stretch, his increase in value will become substantial. Expect him to average around 15 points with two 3-pointers and one steal per game.

Luis Scola (PF/C), Al Horford (PF/C), Antawn Jamison (SF/PF): All three are optimistic about playing their respective teams’ season openers.

And so it begins…. Good Luck!

Unorthodox Rankings

I’ve tried numerous methods for ranking players over the years. For a while I looked strictly at the rankings provided by other sources, eventually factoring in the average draft position of various fantasy websites. As I gained more knowledge I determined these methods to be ludicrous, mainly because I don’t trust the judgement of others.

What makes me think a player should be the fourth pick in a draft just because everyone else thinks so?

So for fantasy hoops season I’ve applied the guidelines I’ve used for fantasy baseball success: trust the numbers. I’ve devised my own projections using formulas I prefer to keep to myself. The players are ranked not just on per game totals, but expected season totals to factor in the probability of injury.

The shooting percentages of players who average less than 12 points per game have essentially been ignored since players with so few shot attempts have little effect on your team’s overall number. It’s the big scorers that move percentages.

Now, I realize my posting has been inconsistent but I would love to hear any thoughts on these. These will be used as my own personal guide while I draft this weekend.

You can take a look at the rankings/projections here. You’ll notice at the end of the projections is a category headed “TOT” which is essentially a player’s total score based on all the categories considered. The lower the number the better.

Keep in mind that these rankings are meant to compare each player’s projected statistical output which every other player in the league.  Some point guards and centers may be slightly more valuable than they appear on these projections based on positional scarcity. Players are broken into groups of 12 as if they were rounds in a 12-team league.

A quick note on some of the more surprising revelations:

Chris Paul is ranked seventh. I was shocked by this but as I looked at the numbers, I think he may be overvalued. Yea, he’s a point guard but you can also draft Dwyane Wade to fill your point guard spot and I honestly feel Durant and Granger are more valuable overall. Still you can’t go wrong drafting him second.

Amare Stoudemire is a mid-second rounder. Another stunner but it makes sense. He doesn’t contribute a true center-level number of blocks, won’t average a double-double and is not an adept passer.

Andre Iguodala is a first-rounder. This was the biggest shocker of all for me since he’s coming off an erratic season. But with Andre Miller gone, Iguodala will be handing the ball more often and his combination of scoring, steals, assists and rebounds affected his rating in an extremely positive way, as it did for Brandon Roy.

Of course, drafting a fantasy hoops roto team is tremendously different from any other sport. As you draft players, the value of remaining players changes based on what categories your team needs. Even though these are my rankings, I’m likely to go with my guy in the first two rounds and then use the rankings to fill in the roster.

I have a feeling some of my first and second-rounders will still be around after 24 picks, making some of them potential third-round gifts.

I’m sure plenty of people would look at these rankings and say that I’m nuts, but I like it that way. I’d rather have wildly different standards of value instead of thinking the same way as the competition.

Because above all I trust the numbers, not the opinions of others.

Andre Miller, Benchwarmer

Once upon a time, Andre Miller was a triple-double threat before become an average-scoring, excellent passing point guard with no jump shot. Then, he emerged as a veteran scoring and passing threat with the 76ers before being signing with the Portland Trail Blazers, where he has emerged as a …… bench player?

According to Yahoo!Sports, Miller has not yet been named the starting point guard in Portland. He averaged 16,3 points and 6.5 assists last season and they gave him $21 million in the offseason and yet somehow he’s competing with Steve Blake?

My pre-draft projections and rankings aren’t done yet (will be soon and posted at the end of the week), but I’m sure as hell that Miller is ranked way higher than Blake. For now, anyway.

While certainly worth reading, I’m taking the report with a grain of salt. I’d be stunned if Miller – barring injury – doesn’t start for the Blazers most of the season.

Empire Building Part IV: Lock on Targets

Once you have a completed a thoroughly researched list of players based upon whatever ranking system you felt was best, it’s time to start using your draft position to formulate an idea of what kind of draft strategy to use and get an idea of how your team is going to evolve.

I’ll usually have two lists of players in front me during any draft: an overall list of players ranked from best to worst; and a list of players by position broken down into tiers based on value. Where your particular tiers begin and end is subjective, of course. But your previous research should make it easier to identify where the gaps are.

When it comes to getting an early idea of who you’ll be drafting, it all start with your first draft pick, which varies depending on where your team is in the draft order. The higher up in the draft order, the narrower you can make your potential pick.

Have the second pick? You only have to decide between Chris Paul and Lebron James. Have the seventh pick? You should probably have about five guys in mind and prioritized. The highest one remaining when it gets to you is your pick.

Where you go from here depends on your format: head-to-head or roto.

For instance, if I have the sixth pick in my head-to-head draft and have Dwyane Wade, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant and Amare Stoudemire as my preference, whichever one I get will determine my ensuing moves. If I lade Bryant, my list of potential second round pick will be small ballers; if it’s Stoudemire I’m going big ballers all the way; while Durant and Wade give me some flexibility to go either way with the next pick.

In a roto leagues you can be far more flexible because often the best strategy is to go with the player who can help you in the most categories. In a head-to-head league, you’ll want to keep adding players who have similar profiles to players you’ve already drafted.

“Small ballers” are good in 3’s, FT%, Steals and Assists and “big ballers” provide some combination of FG%, Rebounds and Blocks. The idea is to pile as many players from one group onto your roster to dominate that group of categories. 

Drafts usually happen so quickly (especially when done online with a 90 second limit), that is easy to overlook which players you have denoted as targets. Therefore it is important to make these players as clearly marked as possible.
 
Use red marker, a larger or bolded font, circle the names once your list in printed out….do anything you can to make yourself recognize names that can NOT be forgotten.
 
The next real question is, of course, what players to target. I’ll help out a bit more with this than I did last season by providing my own rankings with projections within the next week.

Do not denote every player you would like to own as a target, otherwise you’d have the first four rounds of players marked up. You want to focus on players  that will increase in value and outperform their draft position and exceed their perceived value.

This becomes especially important in later rounds as many owners too often look at previous seasons to pick over-the-hill veterans or players who have switched teams in moves that will negatively impact their fantasy value.

Any monkey can wind up with a good fantasy team after six rounds. It’s the players that fill out your rosters – as well as injuries durinbg the season – that will most likely determine your fate.