Sheriff Matrix

A brain-hurting trade of significant proportions came down the pipe on Wednesday when it was announced that the Dallas Mavericks acquired mercurial forward Shawn Marion in a four-team trade that involved the Toronto Raptors, Orlando Magic and Memphis Grizzlies. I believe it went down at the expansion franchise annual summer BBQ, after many plastic red cups had been emptied.

Approximately 140 players changed teams in the deal, give or take, but Matrix is the frustrating focal point.

Entering last season I admitted I had no idea what to make of Marion, who could have been a top 10 pick or shit the bed. Guess which he did?

Marion finished 52nd on Basketball Monster’s player rankings for 2008-09, so perhaps I’m being harsh about how bad he was. Or maybe I just drafted him among the top 15 picks in two leagues and got burned. I gambled, I lost … boo hoo.

Anyway, Marion’s 8.5 rebounds, 1.3, 1.0 blocks, .485 FG% and .796 FT% accounted for his value. He averaged just 12 points per game and made only 10 3-pointers in an injury-shortened season.

Now Marion shifts to Dallas where he will be the fourth offensive option. And strangely enough, I’m not sure it hurts his value all that much. In fact, it may even help.

While Marion was playing with the Phoenix Suns during his years of peak value, he was an afterthought. What I mean by that is that the Suns weren’t running plays for him and he was getting his points and rebounds in the flow of the game. He was arguably their best player while simultaneously being their fourth option, if that makes any sense.

That was mostly why he wanted out of Phoenix and stints in Miami and Toronto proved that he’s just not cut out to have an offense run FOR him. He’s better off playing alongside Jason Kidd, Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry and Josh Howard because it will allow him to play alongside great players, which may have been what made him great once upon a time.

I’d be stunned if Marion gets anywhere near his Phoenix-era numbers. Those days are likely long behind him. Definitely not making him a top 15 (or top 30) pick this season. But an improvement over last season’s disasterous season is pretty likely.

As far as the other players involved in the deal: Jerry Stackhouse winds up with Memphis, Greg Buckner, Kris Humphries and Nathan Jawai landed in Dallas and Antoine Wright and Devean George go to Toronto.

There is a lot of nonsense in that paragraph but the one player who might have a fantasy impact is Antoine Wright. It has been reported that Anthony Parker is leaving Toronto for Cleveland, which gives Wright the inside track on starting for the Raptors alongside Jose Calderon, Hedo Turkoglu, Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani.

Wright’s per minute numbers aren’t anything to get excited about. But a starting gig and 30 minutes per night could result in about one steal and one 3-pointer per game with potential for double-digit scoring.

Wright is still a tremendously flawed player and is only a deep-league option.

Weekend’s Best Fantasy Analysis: July 3-5, 2009

A quick look at some of the best fantasy basketball analysis from around the web this past weekend:

Closer: Brendan K. at 2nd Round Reach look at some of the offseason moves thusfar and their fantasy impact.

Go-To Guy: Erik at Points in the Paint ponders Jason Kidd’s value.

Second Option: Yahoo!’s Charlie Zegers takes a look at which rookies will be the most valuable this season.

Fantasy Fireworks

Talk about an eventful holiday weekend. I hit the Jersey shore for four days and come home with a lot of catching up to do as a flurry of moves have altered the landscape since last week’s Pistons shopping spree.

Since most of these moves have been covered in detail throughout the weekend, I’ll just give a quick recap with my take:

Rasheed Wallace signs with the Boston Celtics: This news broke late Sunday night and basically makes me physically ill due to my distaste for anything Boston related.

There seems to be a prevailing thought that Wallace is near the end of his usefulness, but his per minute numbers have been nearly identical for the past four seasons. Plus, he actually played more minutes last season that the 2007-08 campaign.

There are a lot of questions to be answered here. Wallace will basically be the fifth offensive option and relied on to shoot open 3-pointers, rebound and play defense – all of which still does well.

But with Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo comprising a bulk of the offense, how many shots will be left for Sheed? Will he get more or less minutes as a key veteran role player? Will the secondary role help his usually awful FG% as much as it hurts his scoring average? Will he be starting or coming off the bench?

This one is a wait and see situation, but Wallace is worth a gamble. He’ll still provide 3-pointers, steals and blocks at the center position and any injury to Boston’s aging trio could propel Wallace into a more substantial role on what may be the league’s best team.

Ron Artest signs with the Los Angeles Lakers: Despite Artest’s move to the defending champions, I’m approaching him with caution this season.

Artest is a tremendous defensive player and can shoot 3-pointers, but has really bad shot selection and turns the ball over far too much. Not only does that hurt in fantasy, but it worries me that he may find himself at the receiving end of Phil Jackson’s habit of taking playing time away from sloppy players.

Plus, we know the Lakers won’t be hitching their championship offense to Artest’s shoddy decision making. It will be Kobe Bryant, Paul Gasol, Lamar Odom and possibly the refreshed Andrew Bynum as the team’s most effective and efficient scorers. Artest will get the leftovers and doesn’t shoot well enough to truly maximize those limited opportunities.

The idea of an already valuable fantasy player joining the world champs will cause most owners to see it as an immediate step up. It may get Artest closer to a title, but it won’t do the same for an owner that drafts him too early.

Trevor Ariza signs with the Houston Rockets: Not too long ago, I warned against putting too much faith in players that make names for themselves in the playoffs, because they likely won’t generate the same production the following season.

Ariza is a player I would have considered in that category until this move.

Artest is gone from Houston, Tracy McGrady is perennially injured and Yao Ming may miss the entire season with a foot injury. So it would seem that Ariza is going to be a main weapon for the Rockets, who are shaping up as a running team that will generate high-scoring games. This bodes well for Ariza’s numbers.

We still have yet to see how Ariza will perform with major minutes during the regular season. But time and time again in fantasy basketball it is proven that opportunity is the biggest ingredient for success. Give any player 35 minutes a night and constant access to the ball and that player WILL be fantasy-relevant.

A conservative estimate should have Ariza averaging 15 points, 1.5 3-pointers, 7.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 3.0 steals per game. You could gamble on him averaging as many as 19 points per game and it may just pay off. All that stands in your way are McGrady’s brittle bones.

Marcin Gortat signs with Dallas Mavericks: This hasn’t happened yet but all indications are that Gortat is headed West. That means that there is a new viable fantasy center.

Best known as Dwight Howard’s white backup on the Magic, Gortat is a 25-year-old 7-footer who has shown solid rebounding and shot blocking skills in his two-year career. He has played in only 69 games, averaging 11.2 points, 13.0 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per 36 minutes while shooting 56 percent from the floor.

Gortat will be getting consistent major minutes at the NBA level for the first time, which may expose some glaring holes that have previously been overlooked. But any 7-footer getting 30 minutes per game is worth consideration as a second/backup center due to the potential for blocks and boards.

After all, he can’t be worse than Erick Dampier.

Detroit Contract City

In the first 24 hours of NBA free agency, the biggest splash was made by the Detroit Pistons, who have reportedly signed both shooting guard Ben Gordon and forward Charlie Villanueva.

This move is hard to analyze in regards to Gordon because it’s difficult to fathom how both he and Richard Hamilton can co-exist. Both need the ball and a lot of shots to be effective. Perhaps Hamilton is on his way out of Detroit but until it happens, this is a negative move in terms of Gordon’s fantasy output.

With the size of the contract (around $11 million per season), it’s fair to assume Gordon will be a starter. After all, he wasn’t happy coming off the bench in Chicago. So does that leave a Rodney Stuckey, Hamilton, Gordon starting arrangement? I have a feeling a lot more dominoes will fall before we get a true idea of what Gordon will be worth this season.

For Villanueva – whose deal is reportedly five years for $40 million – this is a positive step. The Pistons have made a huge commitment to him, which means he’ll be getting quality minutes on a regular basis.

With Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess gone via free agency and Amir Johnson dealt away, Villanueva will be the main man inside for the Pistons.

Villanueva has never been a true inside player. He doesn’t play physical enough. But he has a wide array of offensive skills, including a solid jumper, and above average rebounding ability.

In four NBA seasons, Villanueva has averaged 18.2 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.2 3-pointers, 2.4 assists and  1.0 blocks per 36 minutes. He has a .451 career FG% and .789 FT%.

It gives a glimpse of what type of player he can be with 30-plus minutes per game and depending on how the Detroit roster fills out, he’s likely to be a hot commodity on draft day.

The Fantasy Ramifications of the Clueless Bucks

Run Charlie! Run, and don't look back. Run to a team that know how to use you!

 

The NBA offseason is the perfect time for teams make all kinds of terrible decisions via the draft and free agency. And while there are a few contenders for the title thusfar, the Milwaukee Bucks’ baffling June takes the shit-filled cake.

First, the Bucks traded Richard Jefferson to the San Antonio Spurs for very little. It was a clear cost-cutting move. Fine.

Then, the Bucks dealt one of the acquired pieces from the Spurs trade to the Detroit Pistons in exchange for Amir Johnson. I went over those two trades in a post last week.

Milwaukee followed those moves by drafting questionable point guard Brandon Jennings in the first round of the NBA Draft. They added another smallish guard in the second round by drafting Jodie Meeks.

Based on those draft picks, you would expect the Bucks to let Ramon Sessions walk and sign the productive Charlie Villanueva.

But instead, Milwaukee has decided to make a qualifying offer to Sessions and let Villanueva sign elsewhere. So the Bucks are content to go into the season with Luke Ridnour, Sessions, Jennings and Meeks while having only Andrew Bogut, Johnson, Dan Gadzuric and Francisco Elson up front.

There is plenty of info out there on why this is a bad move for the Bucks, but this blog is for fantasy purposes, so let’s just take a look at the fantasy impact.

The team commitment to Sessions is a good sign for his value.  Coming off a sophomore season in which he averaged 12.4 points and 5.7 assists in 27.5 minutes, Sessions appears to be in the long-term plans for the Bucks and it’s fair assume he’ll get 30-plus minutes per game this season.

With Villanueva gone, you can make the case that Johnson is now the team’s second-best frontcourt player. While I detailed his weaknesses last week, it would appear he’s going to get every possible chance to make an impact because this team is going to suck hard.

And while it’s too early to tell where Villanueva is going to end up, hopefully he gets a defined role. In three seasons with the Bucks he has played in 193 games and made 95 starts and every season has been a 50-50 split between starting and coming off the bench.

If you’ve owned Villanueva in the past few seasons you know it was frustrating game of “will he start and get 35 minutes or will he be a reserves and get 12?” He’s only 24 and has shown he can be productive in the NBA. If he heads into the season with a guaranteed 30 minutes per game, he will be an extremely valuable fantasy asset.

You get the feeling the Bucks never really figured out how to utilize his talents. Based on the past couple of weeks, it appears there is a lot the team has yet to figure out.

And So It Begins….

Usually the big moves of the NBA offseason don’t start happening until draft night, but dominoes started falling on Tuesday as there were three (THREE!) trades made with fantasy ramifications.

 The trade that got the most attention was the San Antonio Spurs acquiring Richard Jefferson in exchange for Fabricio Oberto and the remains of Bruce Bowen and Kurt Thomas.

Jefferson is the only fantasy-relevant part of this deal and he has been a hard guy to pinpoint the last couple of seasons. Coming off a tremendous 2007-08 campaign with the Nets, Jefferson was sent to the Bucks in a pre-Draft trade last season and was expected to compliment Michael Redd.

But Redd was banged up for most of the season (as was Andrew Bogut) and Jefferson wound up as a chucker on a bad team. He shot only .439 from the floor and averaged 19.6 points per game.

Jefferson once showed flashes of being a versatile fantasy player, but he no longer rebounds, passes or collects steals and blocks as he once did. His value is completely tied into how efficient a scorer he can be, which is why the trade has an odd way of balancing out his value.

It’s true that Jefferson’s scoring average will definitely drop now that he falls behind Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker in the pecking order. However, he also won’t have to force shots, which will help his FG%  regress to its normal level (about 47 percent).

Jefferson improved one aspect of his game last season, making a career high 1.4 3-pointers per game and shooting a career high 40 percent from the arc. He’ll should have plenty of open looks playing in a talented lineup.

It’s too early to make any projections, but expect Jefferson to put up about 15 points per game with 1.5 3-pointers, .470 FG% and .800 FT%. He still won’t add much in rebounds, assists, blocks or steals, but being the fourth option may make him a more effective player overall.

Plus, there is always the inevitable Ginobili injury and Duncan rest period that will boost Jefferson’s role in the offense.

In a related move, the Bucks took Oberto and shipped him off to the Detroit Pistons in exchange for Amir Johnson.

Anyone who was looking for potential centers at the start of last season certainly took a look at Johnson, who has shown tremendous natural ability and rebounding and blocking shots in his four NBA seasons.

Unfortunately, both of those skills pale in comparison to his ability to get into foul trouble.

Over the last two seasons, Johnson is averaging 10.1 rebounds, 3.3 blocks and 6.7 fouls per 36 minutes. He basically averages two fouls per quarter, which is unacceptable.

But there is still hope. Johnson is only 22 years old and certainly possesses the athleticism to be a successful big man. The Pistons were trying to halt the collapse of their team and thus gave Johnson short lease.

In Milwaukee, Johnson will hopefully be given a bit more room to grow. To put it bluntly, the Bucks will stink so they’ll be able to live with his transgressions and give him more playing time.

While his previous failures should not be forgotten, Johnson could be a solid late round pick when looking to nail down some potential for rebounds and blocks.

And last but not least, the Minnesota Timberwolves dealt Mike Miller and Randy Foye to the Washington Wizards for the fifth pick in the NBA Draft.

Miller was an epic failure in Minnesota last season, averaging just 9.9 points and 1.2 3-pointers per game – both career lows. He provided 6.6 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game, but he finished 116th in the Basketball Monster rankings.

This trade isn’t necessarily good news for Miller. The team is in flux and he could be stuck in a crowded situation fighting Caron Butler and Gilbert “ouch, my knee” Arenas.

The Wizards are trying to find pieces to out around the nucleus of Arenas, Butler and Antawn Jamison in order to make a playoff run. Who knows what that means for Miller? He could wind up coming off the bench as a sharpshooter.

Arenas has not been healthy is three seasons and another injury would push Miller into the starting lineup quickly.

Foye’s days in Minnesota seemed to be numbered once Kevin McHale got the boot, which is odd because he is coming off his best season. Foye averaged 16.4 points, 4.3 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.6 3-pointers and shot 85 percent from the line.

Foyeworked well with franchise player Al Jefferson and led the team in field goal attempts, 3-pointers and FT% and was second in minutes and steals.

Time will tell if Foye is going to get anywhere near the 35 minutes per game he’ll need to approach last season’s numbers. Even if he does, Arenas, Jamison and Butler are unlikely to leave many shots for him.

Start Preparing Now….

One of the wondrous things about fantasy sports is that there is really no such thing as TOO much preparation. As a result (and in an effort to redeem my subpar performance at the end of this past season), I’m already working on stuff for the blog relating to next season.

One quick aside: don’t get too caught up in the playoff performances of some of this year’s heroes. Trevor Ariza, Aaron Brooks, Mickael Pietrus and others all had some superb moments. And when drafting next season it’s entirely possible that your playoff memories may cloud your judgement.

But playoff success is predicated on matchups and specific scenarios while the regular season is a marathon where a players usefulness and effectiveness shift on a daily basis.

Good luck and as the free agents start switching teams, there will be much more activity to come!

I’ve Faded Like the Nets

After a solid start to the blog this season, I have folded like Karl Malone at the free-throw line. As usually happens with things you enjoy, life got in the way: marriage, honeymoon and I’ve spent the last couple months involved in the house-buying process (which is a nightmare, by the way).

But this blog is still very much a part of my future plans and although I may move it, will be coming back in full swing next season.

Some of my time lately has been consumed by my extensive fantasy baseball draft prep (although I’m still swearing off fantasy football this season).

If anyone is interested, I’ve started a new fantasy baseball blog at http://fivetoolfantasybaseball.blogspot.com/ (UPDATED), so check it out if you have some time (and link to your blogs, etc, if you like what you see). I expect to be posting there extensively as the season moves along, especially after I move into my new residence on April 24.

Thanks and good luck as the fantasy hoops season winds down,

FBJ

Nuggets of Value

This awkward bastard could be a real fantasy asset down the stretch.

For those of you who were not sufficiently stunned by Tracy McGrady’s season-ending injuries, the current health woes of Nene and Kenyon Martin should put you over the edge.

More than halfway through the best season of his career, Nene is out with a knee injury that will force him to miss at least two weeks. Meanwhile, Martin is dealing with back problems that threaten to keep he streak of playing in less than 90 percent of each season’s games intact.

So, for the time being, that means the Denver Nuggets are in a precarious situation with their frontcourt. Which also means that about 65 minutes per game are being doled out to players who suddenly have some fantasy relevance.

What’s an owner to do? Pounce.

Any utter collapse of the Nuggets big men is going to bode well for everyone’s favorite eccentric white boy, Chris Andersen.

Andersen already had some fantasy value bocking 2.1 shots per game and shooting 58 percent from the floor. Considering the number of centers that have gone down to injury this season, anyone who can provide numbers in typical big men cats have value.

Andersen isn’t a life saver, but consider what he could do with 30 minutes per game: 8.5 rebounds, 9.8 points, 3.4 blocks, .8 steals. George Karl seems like he’ll never give Andersen 30 minutes per game, but stranger things have happened down the stretches of NBA seasons yore.

Owned in only 20 percent of Yahoo! leagues, Andersen averaged 2.7 blocks in nine February games before logging three in 20 minutes with Nene sidelined on Monday. If this Nene injury lingers or Martin’s back flares up, he will be one of the Top 20 fantasy centers in the final months of the season.

Andersen’s only threat among his teammates is Johan Petro, who started in Nene’s place on Monday and had nine points, 10 rebounds and two blocks.

Petro has always been an intriguing player because of his ability to rebound and collect blocks and steals at a solid pace (8.9 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, .9 steals per 36 minutes in his career).

Petro is new to the Nuggets as he was acquired in early January. He has gotten a mix of no playing time and very little playing time before his first start, which resulted in a 38-point loss to the Celtics.

So, to recap, in a lopsided blowout against a Garnett-less Celtics squad Petro has more fantasy relevance than he’s had in two years. Doesn’t inspire a whole lot of confidence.

On the bright side, he does have a hypnotically round head. But other than that, he’s a desperate option at center right now. If you’re in a need, get high with the Birdman. At least it won’t be boring.

Remember That Tyson Chandler Post from Tuesday?

Yea, well, forget that.

Who had 2/17 In the “McGrady’s Done for the Year” Pool?

Tracy McGrady has plenty of time for magazine reading now.

After hearing numerous conflicting reports over the past few weeks, it was confirmed on Tuesday that Tracy McGrady needs season-ending microfracture surgery on his left knee.

No one act shocked. You all knew the possibilities when you drafted him and saw the writing on the wall when this happened. Not going to spend any time pontificating on McGrady’s decline or the damage this does to his fantasy owners. It was risk you chose to take and it didn’t work out. Deal with it.

But McGrady was playing 34 minutes and taking 14 shots per game and handling the ball quite a bit. In short, a bunch of Rockets just got  some fantasy value. In most leagues, it’ll be a race to the waiver wire.

We’re going to ignore Yao Ming and Ron Artest here, since they have been valuable all season long and will remain so. Both may score a little more but don’t expect any dramatic changes in value. In fact, Yao owners are probably happy he’s still standing this far into the season.

Luis Scola and Rafer Alston have both been playing around 30 minutes per game this season. That shouldn’t change much and both players will continue to provide a 10th or 11th round value for the rest of the season.

The remaining culprits:

Shane Battier (SF; 6-8, 220): There are probably a slew of owners that grabbed Battier on Tuesday after he put up 19 points, nine rebounds, two blocks and a steal in a win against New Jersey.

Unfortunately, those owners are likely to be disappointed in the long run. All of Battier’s numbers have trended downwards this season and those who watch him say he has lost a step. It may be that he is just now recovering from his ankle injury, but age is also likely playing a factor.

Battier is definitely worth grabbing if you have a roster spot you’ve bee trying to fill. He is well known for his statistical versatility. But per 36 minutes he is averaging just 6.4 points, 1.3 3-pointers, 4.8 rebounds, 0.7 steals and 0.8 blocks.

It’s hard to support the idea that more minutes will help his per minute numbers since his ankle is obviously still a factor. But just the possibility of contributing across multiple categories is worth taking a shot on him. It could pay off with him being a fantastic player for the utility slot.

Von Wafer (PG/SG; 6-5, 210 lbs): This is not rocket science, no pun intended.

In 11 starts earlier this season, Wafer averaged 16.4 points, 1.8 3-pointers and 1.4 steals while shooting .497 from  the floor. He came off the bench and scored 19 in 27 minutes on Tuesday as Houston began life without McGrady.

Wafer might not take McGrady’s place in the starting lineup, but he’ll likely get the most minutes off the bench and that gives him plenty of value.

This season’s per minutes numbers are impressive: 17.1 points, 1.3 steals, 1.9 3-pointers, 3.6 rebounds and 2.9 assists per 36 minutes with a decent enough .447 FG% and a solid .783 FT%.

If he gets around 30 minutes per game, which is very likely, he could put up numbers similar to Anthony Parker and provide an eighth or ninth round value for the remainder of the season.

Carl Landry (SF/PF; 6-9, 248 lbs): Landry reminds me of Paul Millsap. One of those guys you know just needs the chance to play major minutes and he’ll produce. And then nominal NBA fans will say he came out of nowehere while the rest of us know he just needed to get a break.

With that said, don’t mistake me for thinking Landry is as good as Millsap. He’s not. But he’s better than the playing time he gets with the Rockets because of their loaded frontcourt.

I also don’t think McGrady’s injury is Landry’s big chance. That will come if Artest, Scola or Battier goes down. After all, he got only nine minutes on Tuesday. But those in deeper leagues have to give him a look.

Per 36 minutes, Landry is putting up 15.7 points and 8.5 rebounds while shooting .561 from the floor and .834 from the line. He doesn’t provide in any other categories, which limits his overall value.

The strongest case you can make for the guy is this: he has played 25 minutes or more 10 times this season and in those 10 games he is averaging 12.9 points and 7.7 rebounds. Yet he has not played 30 minutes in a game this season.

Landry has very little current value, but one more injury to the aging Rockets and he’s on the cusp of a breakthrough.

Aaron Brooks (PG/SG; 6-0, 161 lbs): Brooks is a pretty typical young point guard. Loves to shoot the three although he’s not particularly good at it (.344 for his career), a dreadful FG%, excellent FT% and a solid if unspectacular 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Per 36 minutes this season he has averaged 16.3 points, 2.1 3-pointers, 4.2 assists and 0.8 steals. His percentages are .400/.883.

An injury to Alston would be more beneficial to Brooks since they are too small to play alongside each other. He will remain a backup and has limited value as a result.

Frustrating Big Men Swapped

As the trading deadline approaches, we got the a little movement on Tuesday as Tyson Chandler was traded to the OKC Thunder in exchange for Chris Wilcox, Joe Smith and some other meaningless crap (by fantasy standards).

This is a minor trade as far as fantasy repercussions, but here’s a quick breakdown:

Chandler has been ineffective and plagued by injury much of the season, missing his last 12 games with a sprained ankle and playing in just 32 of 51 games overall. He’s played about four minutes per game less than each of the last two seasons, but even his per minute numbers have not been pretty.

Chandler – a 62 percent “shooter” in each of the last two seasons – has a FG% of “only” .563 this season. He is averaging 9.6 rebounds per 36 minutes – well below the 12 he averaged in each of the previous four years.

While he has bounced back a bit in blocks (from 1.1 per 36 minutes last season to 1.6 this season), he has yet to regain form as an elite shot blocker. His first six seasons in the NBA he averaged 2.4, 2.1, 2.0, 2.3, 1.8, 1.8 per 36 minutes and those days may be gone forever.

The troublesome aspect is that Chandler’s offensive value had a lot to do with Chris Paul’s ability to get him the ball. Now, Chandler is playing with a lot of shoot-firsters and young chuckers.

You might think that the the Thunder’s 20th-best FG% may provide an ample opportuity for rebounds. But the Hornets are just a bit ahead of the Thunder in FG% and it didn’t help Chandler any this season.

Despite all that, Chandler is an intriguing second half sleeper who may have been forgotten about and even dropped in some leagues. He’ll rebound and block shots and shoot a high percentage, although on a minimum number of shots. The only risk is whether or not he can stay on the court.

Wilcox is also something of an intriguing option. The Thunder had a glut of big men that forced Wilcox’s minutes down to just 19 per game – his lowest mark since his days backing up Elton Brand on the Clippers.

Now, he has a chance at seeing 30 minutes per game. It’s been learned over the past few years that Wilcox will never be the player many expected. He’s not going to live up to that potential.

The good news is that his per minute numbers this season are in line with his career norms. With enough minutes he could regain the value he’s had over the past couple of seasons, which makes him an OK second or third center.

Wilcox is a career 53% shooter and could averaged around 13 points and seven rebounds per game. He doesn’t block nearly enough shots to make him a truly useful big man. But with all the centers that have went down with injuries this season, there are plenty of fantasy teams that could stand to benefit.

 From the New Orleans Times-Picayune:

Although he mostly played power forward with the Thunder, Wilcox could move into a starting role at center for the Hornets.

Smith is expected to come off the bench and is not a fantasy asset.

In deep leagues, it’s worth keeping an eye on Hornets center Hilton Armstrong. There are lots of guys like Armstrong in the NBA, young big men with great per minute numbers who foul too much to stay on the court.

While I expect Wilcox will get a lion’s share of the time, this could be an opportunityfor Armstrong, who averages 10.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.6 blocks and 1.0 steals per 36 minutes while shooting better than 50 percent from the floor. Those numbers are reminiscent of Tyrus Thomas, who’s been doing quite well for himself lately.

It seems that for both of the main players in the deal have a great chance of increasing their value. Chandler’s biggest hurdle is his health while Wilcox’s demeanor just seems to wear thin on every team he’s been on. However, there are only about 30 games left in the season so both players only need to get their shit together for six more weeks.

The MVPs of Increasing Value

Ramon Sessions is the poster boy for players that have skyrocketing value during the season.

Lots of owners are currently reeling from some devastating injuries that have rocked fantasy leagues. In most leagues, the top of the free agent pool would be a pretty good team in itself: Elton Brand, Al Jefferson, Andrew Bogut, Michael Redd, Jameer Nelson, etc.

But all these absences create a vacuum that allows other unheralded or forgotten about players to increase the value with more playing time, more shots and more overall fantasy goodness.

Predicting who exactly is going to gain the most value is tough, but lets take a look at the 10 players likely to have the most dramatic increase in value over the season’s final 30 games.

Ramon Sessions (MIL, PG): Too obvious? In every league there were fantasy owners who drafted Sessions knowing he was really the best point guard on the Bucks. Then, they waited while he languished on the bench.

At some point – most likely in December – they could no longer face seeing their flawed draft strategy occupy a precious roster spot and dumped him.

Well now those same owners feel like this, because Redd’s dead, Bogut’s been banished and Ridnour is all no thumbs. And now Sessions is a kid in a candy store with 109 points, 32 assists, nine steals and 41 free throws on 48 attempts in the last four games.

He’s a top 50 player for the rest of the season. There is a little lesson in here about having patience and trusting your draft choices, but I’m not going to rub it in for those who are suffering.

Mike Miller (MIN, SG/SF): With Jefferson out, the Timberwolves will need a steady veteran presence to keep the team from falling into the abyss. It’s just the opportunity Miller needs to revive the worst season of his career.

Miller was averaging just over 30 minutes prior to the injury but logged 44 on Tuesday. He had 12 points, five assists and nailed a couple of 3-pointers. He’s likely not going to regain his old form since his per minute numbers have been poor as well, but there is a chance he becomes a focal point of the offense when Randy Foye is not.

Miller has the ability to contribute in a number of cats from FG% and 3-pointers to rebounds and assists. I think he’ll be one of the top 100 players from here on out.

Kevin Love (MIN, PF/C) : Since so many of the key injuries of late have been to centers, lots of centers are on this list. Love is the most direct beneficiary of the injuries because he is literally stepping into Jefferson’s spot in the Wolves starting lineup.

Basketball Monster had Love ranked as 170th in nine category leagues entering yesterday. It’s hard to tell how far Love will jump in the rankings, but his per minute numbers (14.2 points, 13.3 rebounds 1.0 blocks per 36 minutes) indicate he could be a Top 15 center.

He doesn’t show much potential to be a top shot blocker, but his percentages (.452/.778) have been steadily climbing all season and, frankly, there is no one that is even threatening to replace him.

Mareese Speights (PHI, PF/C): With Elton Brand down for the season, Speights gains a whole new value coming off the bench for the 76ers. While Speights wasn’t Earth-shattering while Brand was out earlier this season, he shoots a high FG% and has averaged 18.8 points, 8.9 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per 36 minutes this season.

In two games since Brand’s inury he has logged 46 total minutes and put up 39 points, 13 rebounds and four blocks while shooting 16-of-24 from the floor and 7-of-8 from the line.

Speights is another guy likely to crack the Top 100 from now until April.

Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF) : I’m partially cheating here since Thomas’ combination of blocks and steals made him a borderline Top 100 players already this season. But game logs don’t lie and Thomas’ last four games (all double-doubles) are pretty nice:

74 points, 45 rebounds, eight blocks, six steals, 24/50 FGs (.480), 24/32 FTs (.750)

If the Bulls can finally just give him steady minutes and ride out the inconsistent moments, he can produce at this level. He’s done it before. And it could make him a Top 50 player.

Part of this opportunity has been the continuing injury saga of Drew Gooden, who may have a sports hernia, which would also continue the increased playing time for….

Joakim Noah (PF/C): I was high on both Thomas and Noah coming into the season beacuseI assumed that with Scott Skiles gone, the Bulls would finally commit consistent minutes to their frontcourt of the future.

Unfortunately, Vinny del Negro is nearly as clueless as Skiles and hasn’t given the duo solid PT until recently. Both have responded and Noah has 84 rebounds and 25 blocks in his last 10 contests.

Noah – like Thomas - still has too many games where he disappears to make him truly reliable. But he has an 18-rebound game and an eight-block game within the last couple of weeks and those kind of performances more than make up for some no shows.

Besides, with the way the center position has been thinned out by injury, the center-eligible Noah is an attractive commodity. You can’t replace the scoring lost from injuries to Brand and Jefferson, but you can fill in most of the blocks and rebounds.

Both Noah and Thomas are a bit risky since we’ve seen these stretches before followed by periods of futility. Plus, Gooden’s possible return could screw things up. But you have to hold out a little hope that the Bulls will realize it’s best to get these guys on the court as much as possible. The short-term future of the franchise literally depends on it.

Speaking of how thin the center position is….

Chris Andersen (DEN, PF/C): In case you hadn’t notice the Birdman is flying again and has been finding himself an increasing part of the Nuggets rotation.

In fact, Andersen averaged better than 20 minutes per game in January. usually, that doesn’t mean a lot of fantasy value, but his FG% (.586 for the season) has improved as the season has worn on and he has been a absolute shot blocking machine (85 in 42 games), which is a real asset in a center-deprived society.

This is a bit of a leap of faith. He’s not going to be a Top 100 player. Even though Kenyon Martin and Nene have been solid this season, we know their injury history and Andersen can be thrown into 30 minutes per game any day now.

 Of course, that day likely isn’t tomorrow as Andersen was hurt driving to the basket in Tuesday’s win over Miami. Still, he could be fantasy basketball’s version of a penny stock right now.

Ricky Davis (LAC, SG/SF) : I’m sorry, but I had to do it. There are few players more reliable for stats in meaningless games than Davis. Plus, there are few players as capable of hurting themselves when games don’t matter like some of his teammates.

So there is a possibility that Davis will be pulling down 30 minutes per game down the stretch (he’s playing a season-high 23 per game this month). 

Even though Davis has struggled with injuries and lack of playing time most of the season, numbers still indicate he can still shoot 3-pointers and collect assists and steals at solid rates. (1.6 3-pointers, 3.5 assists and 1.0 steal per 36 minutes while shooting .840 from the line).

Davis will still be taking a backseat to Eric Gordon even if the “other” Davis goes down for the count (odds at 3-to-1). But he doesn’t haven’t to be “the man”. Just give Ricky some time and Ricky will produce enough to make him worth owning. Ricky.

Ryan Anderson (NJ, PF/C) : As some of you know, I work roughly four to six Nets home games every month. Doing that many games, it’s much easier to see the progression of young players as compared to watching on TV.

Anderson has gotten to the point where he is no longer afraid to shoot and attack the boards. He has the skills of poor man’s Troy Murphy, averaging 1.3 3-pointers, 6.4 rebounds and one steal in 16 games as a starter this season.

Per 36 minutes, he averages 13.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 1.8 3-pointers. He is shooting 39 percent from the floor (48 percent in February) and 82 percent from the line.

The imminent return of Yi Jianlian would seem to hurt Anderson’s value. But Vince Carter and Jarvis Hayes trade rumours are swirling and, based on what we’ve seen in the last few weeks, Anderson may have jumped Hayes in the rotation anyway.

It’s a cluttered situation with Bobby Simmons and Trenton Hassell also in the mix. But when all is said and done I think Anderson will have “vaulted” himself into the borderline-ownable realm.

At the very least, he’s a center-eligible player who can shoot 3’s. That has value in itself, especially for small ball H2H teams in deeper leagues.

Marquis Daniels/Brandon Rush/Jarret Jack (IND, SG/SF/PG) : Follow me here. Mike Dunleavy’s knee is acting up again, there is constant speculation about Danny Granger getting shut down and it’s only a matter of time before T.J. Ford gets tapped on the head and knocked out for the count.

So odds are ONE of these guys are going to get a boost. Daniels has been banged up and Rush and Jack have suffered from maddening inconsistency. My money would be on Jack, who currently has a tiny shred of value, followed by Daniels (assuming he can get healthy) and then Rush.

The lesson as always as the season starts hitting the stretch run. Keep your eyes peeled because past value is meaningless. It’s almost like drafting all over again.

Lessons (Continually) Learned

No matter how long you play fantasy sports and subsequently get kicked in the balls by fate, there are always instances where you are willing to go against things you have previously “learned”. Sometimes it’s because you have an unnecessary attachment to certain players, other times it’s because all you can see is the payoff and not the downside.

Enter: Elton Brand.

Fantasy owners have to be somewhat relieved that the season-long agony that was owning Brand is over. Now it’s official. It was a horrendous draft pick and you’re probably reeling from it in one way or another.

I’m especially peeved at myself since I took Brand 11th overall in 12-team league. I know I’m not the only one who did. After all, many of were drooling over the idea of Brand feasting on the undersized forwards in the Eastern Conference and living up to his giant contract.

But I broke two fundamental rules I try to observe within the realm of fantasy basketball. Firstly, is be wary of players that change teams. Secondly, don’t assume a player coming back from an injury is going to play like his old self until he proves it.

The first rule I hold especially true for basketball. In baseball, a player gets a certain number of at-bat no matter what team he is on. The rest of the lineup and the park can help/hurt some stats, but he’s the same player with the same skill set.

In basketball, a new team changes the entire equation. There is only one ball and the team needs to learn who gets it and when. There are plays to learn and rotations to figure out and a team’s style can dramatically alter a player’s fantasy value (See anyone on the Knicks this season).

This clearly happened to Brand, who struggled at the outset to mesh with his new team. He just wasn’t the same player, which leads me to point number two.

Looking back, I don’t know why I was so certain a 30-year-old power forward who had player who had played eight solid but meaningless games following an torn Achilles heal was going to become a 20/10/2 producer this season.

Disregard the shoulder injury that prematurely ended his season. He was an inefficient big man this season. It’s like Brand was paying me to like his prospects. For all my prescience with certain guys I loved (Al Jefferson, Danny Granger, etc.), I had the blinders on with Brand.

I plan on doing a follow up post in a few days on how often changing teams actually helps a player’s value. Off the top of my head, Brand, Shawn Marion, Mike Miller, Allen Iverson and Jason Richardson have all taken a dive switching teams.

Could “new team” be placed right next to “injury prone” when analyzing players in the future?

Valley Forge

“These are the times that try men’s souls.” — Thomas Paine

I relate to that quote quite a bit right now, because in one of my eight-category money leagues, I just lost Elton Brand and Andrew Bogut for the season within a couple days of each other. As a result, it’s starting to look like a cold, dark winter.

What’s most heartbreaking is that with those two on the roster, the quality of the team is pretty much unmatched in the league. Take a look and what could have been:

PG: Deron Williams, SG: Manu Ginobili, G: Vince Carter, SF: Rudy Gay, PF: LaMarcus Aldridge, F: Lamar Odom, Cs: Brand and Bogut, U/Bench: Eric Gordon and Ramon Sessions, Derek Fisher, Tyrus Thomas, Courtney Lee.

That’s a pretty sweet roster, even with Rudy Gay’s decline and Brand’s uninspired play. Early in the season, I was waiting for Williams and Ginobili to get healthy. Then Brand separated his shoulder and Bogut’s back began to get sore.

Never was this team healthy at once and now, there is a crossroads. So what road does a fantasy owner take? Basically, I have three options:

1. Ditch rebounds, fill the center slot with shot blockers like Chris Anderson and load the rest of the team with FT%, 3-pointers, assists, steals and blocks.

2. Pull off a trade, shipping off one of my guards for someone who can average 10 rebounds and two blocks per game.

3. Try to plug the missing 20 rebounds and four blocks per game with free agents and try to keep the team as balanced as possible.

Option 2 is a problem, because there are so few big men of that caliber. I’ve tried to get Al Jefferson, Emeka Okafor or Marcus Camby, with no success.

Option 3 is nearly impossible. No one on the waiver wire even has the potential for those kind of numbers.

So I’ve tentatively decided to go with option 1. Aldridge and Anderson with be my centers. The rest of the team will be loaded with FT%, 3-pointers and a mix of steals and blocks.

A core of Williams, Ginobili, Carter, Gay, Gordon, Odom and Sessions should provide a lot of 3-pointers, FT%, assists and steals. Fisher and Lee also add 3-pointers and FT% and Thomas is a beast in steals and blocks.

As the season winds down, I see this team picking up major points in the traditional small ball categories. Due to the limited play of Brand and Bogut already this season, the team is already near the bottom in FG%, blocks and rebounds so I shouldn’t lose any ground there.

A situation like this is the number one reason why fantasy sports is so excrutiating. Being teased with greatness only to have the rug pulled out from under you.

A long, cold winter indeed.

Super (Erratic) Mario

Mario's coming into his own as the season moves along. Owners need to catch up.

I’m not sure if everyone is experiencing it this season, but every time I go through the free agent lists for my 12-team leagues, it always seems that Mario Chalmers is near the top of the list. Whether it is Basketball Monster or the Yahoo! rankings, the kid’s name seems to loom there and yet whenever he is picked, it is only for a brief period.

Most of my 12-team league squads tend to be point guard heavy, which is why I haven’t owned him yet. But just the fact that he as at times one of the league’s better young point guards makes him a curious case among the unowned. In fact, he is owned in just 49% of Yahoo! leagues this season.

That seems low considering that Chalmers is eighth in the NBA in steals per game, a respectable 38th is assists per game and a useful 58th in 3-pointers per game.

Rookies tend to get a short leash in fantasy as well as in the NBA. A good stretch and everybody wants them, but one bad stretch and they get left on the trash heap. Part of it is the unknown quantity when it comes to rookies.

If a solid player like David West has a bad couple of weeks, we’ll ride it out because there are three seasons of data telling us he’s good. When it’s a rookie, we immediately tend to think that it’s the successes that are anomalies and jump ship.

But in a season like this where there are so many standout rookies, why does Chalmers seem to be the one no one believes in?

Basketball Monster has Chalmers ranked as the 90th best player in nine category leagues this season. That means he should be owned in every 12-team league and most 10-team leagues.

Chalmers is averaging 9.8 points, 1.4 3-pointers, 4.6 assists and 1.9 steals and 2.0 turnovers in 31 minutes per game while shooting 42 percent from the floor and  75 percent from the line.

His value clearly lies in the help he gives in assists, 3-pointers and a tremendous number of steals. His percentage are uninspiring and he doesn’t score much.

But when evaluating a rookie, the overall numbers are never the true indicator. Lets look at some of Chalmers’ splits:

In the season’s first 13 games, he posted averages of 7.1 points, 4.5 assists, 1.9 steals and one 3-pointer in 29 minutes per game with truly awful percentages (.378/.643).

Over the next 17 games, it’s averages of 12.8 points, 4.6 assists, 2.1 3-pointers, 2.0 steals and percentages of .463 and .750. Much better production as his shots are starting to fall.

Then, as soon as the calender flipped to 2009, it was 6.2 points, 4.3 assists, .7 3-pointers and 1.5 steals with percentages of .314/.773 in his next 11 games.

Now, Basketball Monster has him ranked as the 28th best player nine-category leagues over the past two weeks, averaging 12.7 points, 5.6 assists, 1.6 3-pointers and a mind-blowing 2.7 steals while shooting .478/.933.

It’s crucial to note that most of the recent stretch came with Shawn Marion sidelined. But Chalmers’ first good stretch coincided with Marion’s own solid run of games, so the pair can definitely co-exist. 

Another important thing to note in all those stretches is he has remained productive in 3-pointers, assists and steals to varying degrees. But as far as scoring and his percentages, what can we expect?

Chalmers shot better than 50 percent in two collegiate seasons, with a lot of that due to his ability to make 44 percent of his 302 3-pointers. So, the kid’s got range. Of course, he also shot 56 percent on all of his two-point attempts, which ain’t going to happen in the NBA.

Therefore, it’s easy to assume his FG% is going to remain something of a liability all season. His .422 mark is probably a good indication of the type of shooter he is at this point in his career. Certainly he won’t have much consistency, anyway.

Chalmers was a 76 percent free-throw shooter in college. That’s a decent number, but it hardly gets you excited about his recent hot stretch at the line. It’s most likely a fluke, especially since it has come on only 15 attempts.

So Chalmers’ value for the remainder of the season is reduced to 3-pointers, assists and steals. If you filter rankings based just on those stats, he is the 12th best player according to BM and 11th according to SignandTrade.com.

So now Chalmers’ value and usefulness gets some clarity. If you can afford to take on some low percentages (keep in mind the low volume of shots), Chalmers is an excellent second point guard on most teams, if you’re willing to deal with the slow stretches.

So why are 51 percent of owners uninterested?

I think the main answer lies in the glory that are points. Most owners are dazzled by lots of points, overvaluing players who score and do little else (see Von Wafer’s brief stint of fantasy success). But when you have a guy who is dominant in one category and contribute solidly in two others but doesn’t score much, he gets left behind.

Jameer Nelson Can’t Carry Your Fantasy Squad With One Good Arm

Just days after the resurgence of Andrew Bynum ends in a crumpling heap on the floor, Jameer Nelson suffered a disclocated right shoulder in a loss to Dallas on Monday. He’ll have an MRI on Tuesday but it’s fair to assume he will be sidelined for about a month.

If Nelson needs surgery, his season is over.

This is a cruel blow to anyone that owned Nelson, who after years of promising stretches was having the best season of his career. He was averaging 16.7 points, 5.4 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 1.2 steals and two 3-pointers per game while shooting .503 from the floor and .887 from the line.

Basketball Monster had Nelson ranked as the 18th best fantasy player this season in nine category leagues (20th in eight category leagues). A lot of teams just lost their best fantasy player.

No waiver wire slouch is going to put lipstick on that pig, but there are some intriguing backcourt options for the Magic that may be worth of fantasy consideration.

Rookie Courtney Lee got the start alongside Nelson on Monday and played 33 minutes. It was his 13 consecutive start and sixth straight game logging 30-plus minutes.

As a starter, Lee is averaging 9.1 points, 1.3 3-pointers, 1.2 steals, 3.2 rebounds and 1.5 assists and shooting  .449 from the floor and .813 from the line.

But with the Magic needing someone to take Nelson’s 12 shots per game and the inconsistent Mickael Pietrus still getting back to the flow, Lee could be a strong source of 3’s, steals and FT% from here on out.

If you’ve been debating about picking up Pietrus because of his up-and-down nature and injury history, hesitate no more. He’s got 64 points, 19 rebounds, eight assists, four 3’s and is 22-of-34 from the floor and 13-of-15 from the line in four games since returning from a broken right wrist.

But those four games have belied Pietrus’ streaky nature with a 27-point outburst followed by a four-point game followed by a 22-point game followed by just eight points on Monday.

Still, Pietrus is averaging a career-high 12.3 points per game (17.1 points per 36 minutes, also a career best). His percentages of .470 and .831 are very respectable but so far out of line with his career norms (.443/.676) that it’s hard to have much confidence that they will hold steady.

Pietrus is much more of an outside player than he’s ever been. A lot of his value previously came from a rare mix of 3’s, steals and blocks with some rebounds mixed in. But with Dwight Howard owning the paint for Orlando, Pietrus is now a solid flier for some 3’s and steals only as his rebound and block rates have plummeted.

And it’s going to be very interesting how often the Magic will turn to veteran point guard Anthony Johnson. Lee is a rookie and Pietrus not a good ballhandler, so someone is going to have to run that offense. They will run a good portion of it through Hedo Turkoglu, but will need a true point guard at times as well.

Johnson is worthless from a scoring standpoint, with terrible percentages (.371 FG% this season, .412 career; .727 FT% this season, .738 career) but he can still dish (5.2 assists and just 1.7 steals per 36 minutes) and contribute a moderate amount of 3-pointers and steals.

Still, Johnson shouldn’t be considered as a pickup. But keep an eye on him in deep leagues if you’re hurting for assists.

And last but not least is the intriguing of case J.J. Redick. He can be one of the league’s best 3-point and free-throw shooters with enough minutes, but does he do nearly enough to warrant them?

Redick doesn’t rebound well, is not an adept passer and his his assist-to-turnover ratio is less than 2-to-1. He provides little in the way of defensive stats and his inability to defend is why he can’t stay on the floor as a pro.

Not a whole of reasons to even consider pickup him up, but let’s face it. There will always be people with a hard-on for college basketball greats that just “need the chance” to be great pros. In your league, it’s probably the guy that owns Adam Morrison.

The New Lakers Will Be A Lot Like the Old Lakers

Cheer up guys! Most of you are better fantasy options now!

I wasn’t going to write a post on the injury to Andrew Bynum since it happened four days ago and numerous blogs have already covered it. But the news that Bynum will miss 12 weeks (lets face it, he’s gone for the rest of the season, the Lakers have even conceded it) along with Basketbawl blaming Kobe Bryant for the whole ordeal inspired me.

There is not much to add about the situation except, perhaps, for who becomes the hot Laker pickups now. No one is going to replace what Bynum did, but others will get more minutes and hence produce more stats.

Lakers coach Phil Jackson went with last season’s lineup in Monday’s game at New York, with Lamar Odom at power forward and Pau Gasol at center. Considering there are no real new pieces on this team, let’s look at last season’s post-Bynum-injury production to see what we can expect from some key Lakers.

Basically, what we already saw out of Bryant in Monday’s 61-point effort is that he’s probably going to feel the need to carry the Lakers for the rest of the season. The is great news if you own him as his three best scoring months last season came after Bynum got hurt. But you weren’t really shopping him around anyway, were you?

Odom’s worst overall month last season came in January, just as Bynum was beginning to flourish. After Bynum’s injury (and the subsequent trade for Gasol), he averaged better than 15 points, 11 rebounds, one block and one steal per game. Pretty sweet potential numbers from a guy many owners probably conceded was a bad draft pick.

Playing alongside Bynum for the first time this season, Gasol’s percentages held steady and his rebounds increased (probably due to being matched up with lesser rebounders while Bynum took on true centers) but his blocks plummeted and his scoring dropped slightly.

Now back as the man in the middle for the Lakers, Gasol will probably revert closer to last season’s numbers with a little more scoring and blocks and a dip in rebounds. 

The rest of the Lakers roster is a little more difficult to flesh out. Luke Walton started at small forward on Monday and played 22 minutes with six points, five assists, three rebounds and a block.

Walton is now two years removed from the best season of his career, and even with Bynum’s injury it’s hard to see him get the 33 minutes per game he needed to produce at that level.

Trevor Ariza got the fourth-most minutes for the Lakers on Monday and is worth a pickup in all but the smallest leagues.

Ariza has gotten some inconsistent playing time this season but there is no doubt about his abailities and just the possibility of him getting around 30 minutes per game is worth a shot. He could put up 11 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists and two steals with a solid FG% and some 3-pointers.

Every team could use a player like that towards the end of its bench.

I have touted Jordan Farmar in this space before and lamented Phil Jackson’s unwillingness to play him more minutes, but the tide may be turning. Playing just 19 minutes per game before suffering a knee injury in December, Farmar returned last week and has played more than 20 minutes in two of five games since his return.

There is no guarantee his playing time will increase, of course. He’s young and a little erratic and those are things that will get him benched by Jackson for stretches at a time. But his per minute numbers (14.5 points, 4.1 assists, 1.9 steals, 1.6 3-pointers) suggest that he may be worth a look if you’re searching for an under-the-radar secondary point guard in a deep league.

Derek Fisher’s ever-present value with stay steady and the rest of the Lakers are a bunch of fantasy one-trick ponies, including Vladimir Radmanovic and Sasha Vujacic.

Basically, it’s a terrible blow if you own Bynum but a bit of a lift if you have Bryant, Odom or Gasol. Fisher remains solid if unspectacular, Ariza is worth a pickup as a utility option and small ball teams in deep leagues could benefit from Farmar in the not-too-distant future.

Can We Shoot Him with an AK-47?

Andrei Kirilenko decided on Thursday to have surgery on his right ankle instead of playing through the pain. I miss the good old days when Russians were extremely tough bastards.

But Kirilenko, Anna Kournakova and Maria Sharapova are destroying the image. Vladimir Putin alone is keeping it alive. But I digress….

Kirilenko was having a solid season, posting his best per minute numbers since 2004-05, although he doesn’t block shots like he used to. Now he’s sidelined for about a month and his combination of stats are difficult to find.

Kirilenko has missed the last four games so we already know that there is no one player on the Jazz that jumps out as the biggest beneficiary of his absence.  In those four games, the universally-owned Deron Williams, Paul Millsap, Mehmet Okur and Ronnie Brewer have all logged 31minutes or more per game.

Next in line is C.J. Miles, who has averaged 25 minutes per game – slightly over his season average. Miles had some decent value early in the season, providing solid percentages and 3-pointers while Williams was sidelined.

Miles may regain some of that value, but those are not the categories you lost when Kirilenko went down, so it probably doesn’t help.

Kyle Korver’s minutes have stayed consistent and he’s good for 3-pointers and FT% only. Matt Harpring is playing 16 minutes per game, quite a bump of his usual number but not enough to make him worth having.

Looking at each player’s per minutes numbers (per 36 minutes):

Miles: 15.0 points, 2.6 assists, 3.7 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 1.4 3-pointers, .470 FG%, .862 FT%

Korver: 13.6 points, 2.6 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 0.8 steals, 1.8 3-pointers, .419 FG%, .842 FT%

Harpring: 14.1 points, 1.5 assists, 6.4 rebounds, 1.9 steals, .471 FG%, .763 FT%

Keep in mind that none of those guys will play near 36 minutes per game and their playing time will be more based on matchups, giving each a decided lack of consistency.

But where can you turn to find some kind of stopgap replacement for Kirilenko, who was averaging 5.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.4 blocks?

Kirilenko was contributing mildly in rebounds and assists as well as points (12.7) and FT% (.798 on 5.2 assists per game). But it’s the blocks and steals where he will be missed the most.

A quick glace shows that there are only 18 players in the NBA that average one block and one steal per game. Only one of them can be described as widely available and it’s the mind-numbingly frustrating Tyrus Thomas.

Thomas is owned in just 51 percent of Yahoo! leagues and is averaging one steal and 1.7 blocks per game. He’s putting up 1.6 steals and 2.3 blocks per 36 minutes, so perhaps they should give him more minutes than Andres Nocioni.

Thomas is also shooting a career-best .812 from the line and averaging 5.2 rebounds per game. Thomas is a aggravating dude to own … but so is Kirilenko. The key with Thomas is patience. If you can stomach having him in your lineup every day, you’ll get the benefit of the 22 multi-block games he’s had thusfar.

There are a few other players who approach the one block, one rebound standard that are more widely available:

Francisco Garcia (owned in 49 percent of Yahoo! leagues) is averaging 1.1 steals and 0.8 blocks per game as well as 11.5 points and 1.1 3-pointers. He’s shooting .425 from the floor but .793 from the line.

In addition, with the rumours swirling about the potential trade of Brad Miller and/or John Salmons, there is an outside chance Garcia’s minutes will receive a bump within the next month.

Garcia’s teammate Spencer Hawes (48 percent owned) could also receive a boost following a trade. Hawes is putting up 1.4 blocks, 0.6 steals and 6.3 rebounds per game with erratic minutes. A bigger role could bump him into the one block, one steal realm, although his percentages are poor.

Anderson Varejao (43 percent owned) is averaging 1.1 steals and 0.9 blocks and well as 7.1 rebounds per game. He is a career 50 percent shooter from the floor but just 59 percent from the line. The impending return of Zydrunas Ilgauskas will limit his effectiveness, however.

And, you have to hand it to Ben Wallace (38 percent owned), because the old bastard is still averaging 0.9 steals, 1.6 blocks and 6.7 rebounds in limited minutes. His role will also take a hit when Ilgauskas returns but if you’re strictly looking for some fill in for steals and blocks, there are only four out of 41 games this season he has failed to record either.  In 20 of those 41 games, Wallace had had at least one of each and there is some limited value in that.

No need to worry, Andrei just needs a little R&R. And some surgery.

Newsful Wednesday

Is that a word, newsful? As in chock full of news? Well, it is now.

Wednesday is my favorite day of the NBA week, because there is usually a shitload of games. Conversely, I hate Thursday’s. Usually just two games, they start late and sometimes aren’t the best matchups (but usually are). That’s why I always seem to post on Wednesday and this week is no exception. And not only were there a lot of games (12), but a lot of shit happened.

Instead of making numerous posts, I’ll just run them down real quick:

Both Marcus Camby and Baron Davis returned for the Los Angeles Clippers. Both played about 22 minutes while Camby had six points and six rebounds in 22 minutes and Davis had three points on 1-of-10 shooting and four assists.

The fallout is undeniable: the short period of value for DeAndre Jordon is gone as is any hope of Mardy Collins having value once he returns. As time moves along, clearly Davis will be taking some shots away from rookie Eric Gordon.

But Gordon’s FT% and ability for 3-pointers and steals still make him valuable. And with Davis on the court to draw defenses, it might actually help make Gordon (.434 FG%) a little more efficient.

Al Thornton is in the same boat as Gordon. His overall production may suffer slightly but he still does enough things well to make him worth having.

Of course, Davis and Camby don’t exactly have the best track record at staying healthy. I’d keep any Clippers except for Jordan and Collins, who are droppable. Just remember that future injury situations could make them quickly valuable once again.

At the risk of giving many fantasy owners some heartburn, Danny Granger missed Wednesday’s win over Milwaukee with a sore knee. But the more information that begin to trickle out, the more concern there is about the injury.

The knee has been bothering Granger for the last six or seven games, not that you could tell from his performances.

Gratuitous awful quote:

“It’s messed up. There’s a tendon that’s required for me to jump and move and it’s attached to my bone. It was getting better and then we went through a stretch where it started getting worse and worse playing on it.”

That doesn’t sound great. Could Granger be the second-half version of his teammate Mike Dunleavy, who missed so much time with knee injury that was pretty much a mystery?

As with any player of Granger’s stature, there are numerous guys who could statistically benefit from his absence. After all, that’s 26 points and 19 shots per game that will be dispersed among the rest of the team.

T.J. Ford, Dunleavy and Troy Murphy will all get more touches than usual. Marquis Daniels could return the early season value he provided while Dunleavy was sidelined. Jarrett Jack, who has been in a slump since Ford returned to full health, has a chance to regain his form with more minutes.

On Wednesday, Jack had 14 points, six assists and three steals playing the backcourt alongside Ford, who had a monster game (34 points). Daniels had just three points but did get 29 minutes – his most since January 2 – and collected four rebounds, four assists and three steals.  

And finally, could this week get any better for those who have Ramon Sessions? First Michael Redd goes down with a season-ending knee injury and Wednesday Luke Ridnour suffered a concussion against Indiana.

Concussions are tricky things, so it’s hard to gauge how this will affect Ridnour, but it’s a safe bet he will at least miss Milwaukee’s games on Friday and Saturday.

The result is that Sessions will be running the point and we might get some of the gaudy assist totals he posted towards the end of last season. In the two games following Redd’s injury, Sessions played as the two guard alongside Ridnour and had 34 points (11-of-23 FGs, 12-of-15 FTs), seven rebounds, five assists and four steals.

Last season, Sessions took over after Mo Williams got hurt and averaged 13.1 points, 13.1 assists, 5.6 rebounds and 1.6 steals while starting at point guard in the final seven games .

Part of that small sample size was skewed by a 24-assist game, but take out that performance and he averaged 11.3 assists in the other six games.

Ridnour is relatively fragile and if the injury lingers, Sessions could provide a huge boost in assists over the next few weeks. His value in FT% and steals is set in stone for the rest of the season. Now if he could only get some range on that jump shot.

Look for Charlie Bell as the most likely player to replace Ridnour in the starting lineup. With enough minutes, Bell has a chance to contribute some 3-pointers and steals, but his per minute numbers are the worst of his career and he has struggled this season. It’s hard to reccomend dropping anyone for Bell just because he may have some value over the next few games. It’s going to be Sessions’ show.