Brandon Jennings: Great Rookie or GREATEST Rookie?

As a cautious fantasy owner, it’s important never to over-react to early season trends. Making roster moves based on short-term success can provide disastrous later on in the season and you need to keep a clear view of the full, 82-game picture.

With that said, Brandon Jennings is the GREATEST ROOKIE IN THE HISTORY OF THE NBA!

OK, all hyperbole aside, the argument can be made that Jennings is off to the best career start in NBA history. After dropping 25 points and four assists at Chicago on Tuesday, Jennings is currently ranked 23^rd in nine-category leagues by Basketball Monster.

Jennings is averaging 22 points, 2.3 3-pointers, 5.3 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 1.7 steals in his first three NBA games. His .481 FG% is a little misleading since he has only shot better than 44 percent once and his 70 percent FT% is disappointing for a point guard.

However, pieces keep falling into place for Jennings to continue his success. Michael Redd is already dealing with soreness in his balky left knee and will miss at least two weeks. My guess is he will be lucky to play 40 games this season.

Luke Ridnour has been reduced to just 14 minutes per game as he makes way for the rise of Jennings, who is poised to become the leader of the Bucks. Make no mistake, Milwaukee sucks, but Jennings will get almost unlimited opportunities to be their stud.

Entering the season, it was impossibly difficult to make projections for Jennings. How can you possibly predict how a player will play in the NBA when his only post-high school experience was playing sparingly in Europe?

Based on the early evidence, it would appear Jennings can score, shoot from long range and has a nose for the ball. However, his 54 shot attempts in three games also indicated he’s something of a chucker. That tendency will only get worse without Redd and his FG% percentage will likely settle somewhere around 43 percent. There will be some very shaky 4-for-20 nights in his immediate future.

But the prospects of Redd’s absence and the lack of competition at the guard position in Milwaukee make Jennings a great pickup for the remainder of the season. He won’t remain a Top 25 player but could see him finishing the season in the Top 75.

It would help if he got better from the line, though.

Another Bucks player to keep an eye on is Hakim Warrick, who I have blogged about so many times it’s surprising he hasn’t asked me be to be his agent.

Through 310 career games, Warrick is averaging 16.9 points, 7.2 points and 0.8 steals per 36 minutes with a .497 FG%. Based on those numbers, you will think some NBA team would have just signed him and given him 30 minutes per game by now.

Well perhaps that time is now as Warrick – finally free from the dungeon that was the Grizzlies’ bench – has played 30-plus minutes in each of Milwaukee’s last two games. And he not-so-surprisingly has averaged 16 points and 7.5 rebounds – almost exactly in line with his averages noted above.

At this point, far be it for me to proclaim Warrick to be a worthy fantasy pickup. He’s not quite there yet and it’s going to take a lot more evidence to make me change my mind. But he’s worth keeping an eye on, even if it takes a few years to finally pay off.

Net Loss

In January I posed the question as to whether Devin Harris was becoming injury prone. He played in only 69 games last season after managing only 64 during the 2007-08 season, but was still highly-coveted entering this season as primary offensive weapon on the New Jersey Nets.

Harris was projected as a third-rounder with forecasted averages of 21.4 points, 6.5 assists, 1.6 steals and one 3-pointer with an .822 FT% in 73 games. Even factoring in a projection of nine missed games, he still figured to be a valuable asset.

But Harris is already sidelined with a groin problem for which he has seen a specialists. Frankly, it gives me chills whenever one of my fantasy players sees a specialist. It’s almost never good. Think early 2000’s Grant Hill or – for you baseball fans – Mike Hampton.

It could be a devastating loss if not for the fact that the Nets have a couple of built in replacements ready to go. Harris owners should act quickly.

Veteran point guard Rafer Alston, who was acquired in the offseason trade that sent Vince Carter to Orlando, filled in on Saturday with 20 points, eight assists and one steal. He made 8-of-11 shots from the floor, including three 3-pointers. He followed that up an awful game on Monday (two points on 1-of-8 shooting), but his prospects are still good.

Even with Harris in the lineup, Alston was projected to be an 11^th rounder with averages of 10.1 points, 1.4 3-pointers, 4.2 assists and 1.2 steals. He would have already been a valuable guard off the bench for any fantasy team.

With starters’ minutes, Alston is going to be a nice fill in piece for the next couple of weeks and a much-needed handicap for anyone that owns Harris for the remainder of the season. He will kill you in FG% (projected: .402), especially if he tries to take the Nets’ offense into his own hands, but he can produce across the board in the usual point guard categories.

Alston’s career per minutes averages are 12.8 points, 6.1 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.9 3-pointers per 36 minutes. Even with his .386 career FG% and .730 FT%, those numbers can provide short-term help.

Another intriguing but less-proven commodity is Chris Douglas-Roberts, who scored 25 points in 38 minutes on Saturday and added 20 points in 39 minutes on Monday. CDR has made 50 percent of his shots from the floor and 88 percent from the line, displaying an aggressive mentality that got him to the line 17 times in the last two games.

CDR played in 44 games as a rookie last season and his per minute averages were decent, but not overwhelming: 13.3 points, 3.2 assists and .7 steals per 36 minutes. Most of his added value thusfar this season has come from his strong FG%, which will not last.

However, the Nets are young and will give the athletic CDR plenty of chances to make an impact. He’s not a recommended pickup in standard leagues but worth keeping an eye on.

Sibling Swap

Rarely – if ever – has a pair of brothers had as big an impact on fantasy hoops than Pau and Marc Gasol in the first week of the 2009-10 season. I don’t think fantasy basketball was big was Dominque and Gerald Wilkins played, the Barry brothers were never big fantasy assets, Horace and Harvey Grant were uninspiring and the O’Bannon’s were both flops.

But Pau Gasol entered this season as a highly-coveted second or third rounder and his younger brother Marc was a sure-fire late-rounder at a thin center position. Both have made some waves early in the season for opposite reasons.

Pau Gasol has missed the Los Angeles Lakers’ first two games with a hamstring injury and is reportedly frustrated with the lack of progress he is making in his recovery. He was projected to play 77 games this season and hamstring injuries have a way of lingering, so there is no telling how long it will take for him to be at full strength.

This is a huge issue for owners of Pau, who averages close to a double-double with excellent percentages. He’s also projected to hand out 3.5 assists per game – a stellar amount for a center-eligible player.

Pau is truly irreplaceable on a fantasy roster, although is absence has led to strong starts from both Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom, both of whom are exceeding their projected value.

Meanwhile, Marc is averaging 19 points, 12.3 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and one steal while shooting 65 percent from the floor and 85 percent from the line. It’s as if Pau transferred his abilities into the body of his younger sibling.  

Pau and Marc's story will complete the trilogy.

It’s too early to get overly excited. After all, Marc was projected to average 11.9 points and 7.4 rebounds with 1.1 blocks. But he’s almost untradeable at this point because you just have to see where this thing goes.

On the downside, the human vortex of shot attempts known as Allen Iverson returned for the Grizzlies on Monday and is already complaining about playing time. No telling how that will affect the Memphis offense, but it’s a fair bet that a few of Marc’s opportunities will vanish as Iverson begins to get more touches.

Still, at this point in the season, Marc’s owners have to be optimistic while Pau’s owners are probably a little nervous.

Expanding the Empire

For those who enjoy my literary stylings, please view my contributions to the website Fantasy Basketball Report. My first installment of the Rookie Report was posted yesterday and there will be a new installment each Friday morning.

Unlike fantasy baseball, which has enough websites and blogs to make you dizzy, Fantasy Basketball Report is a strong addition to the slowly growing (but still small) number of credible fantasy hoops resources.

Enjoy!

First Impressions

 

Chris Kaman. The hair is gone but the fantasy value remains.

It’s extremely important not to overreact to anything that happens early in the season. DeJuan Blair will not average a double-double this season, Danilo Gallinari will not hit seven 3-pointers per game and Yi Jianlian is not going to be a fantasy stud.

 With that said, here are a few observations from the first few days of NBA action.

Amare Stoudemire played 40 minutes in the Suns season opener and managed only 16 points, five rebounds, one block and six turnovers. Stoudemire was a second-rounder in my preseason rankings and I’m not high on him this season.

Stoudemire doesn’t rebound or block shots like Dwight Howard and doesn’t score like Lebron James. His percentages are great, but his injury history and current unhappiness in Phoenix make him a worrisome fantasy player early this season.

Chris Kaman has been an absolute beast in his first two games, averaging 20 points and 12.5 rebounds while shooting 53 percent from the floor. These numbers are quite inflated compared to my projections of 11.6 points and 8.3 rebounds.

However, the absence of Blake Griffin has boosted Kaman’s usefulness for the time being. Until Griffin returns, expect Kaman to settle in around 15 points and 10 rebounds if he can stay healthy and he’s a must add if he wasn’t drafted.

Elton Brand continued his two-year trend of awful with just eight points on 2-of-7 shooting with six rebounds and one block. It appears he just doesn’t fit in with the rest of the 76ers roster and may never revert to his pre-Philadelphia form.

Some drafts I participated in had Brand going in the third round. My projections had him as a ninth rounder. After one game, I win. But, like I said, don’t read too much into the first few games and weeks.

Matt Bonner has started at center for the Spurs in each of their first two games. Bonner is no fantasy stud, but if you have a small ball team in a head-to-head league you at least have to take a look at him as a backup center.

Blair’s 14-point, 11-rebound debut was followed up with six points and four rebounds on Thursday. His season will likely be all over the map since he is a rookie, but the potential for more minutes as Tim Duncan the Spurs vets get rest later on makes him a worthy add.

Gallinari’s seven 3-pointers were tremendous, but consider he took 13 total shot from beyond the arc and attempted only one two-pointer in a game where the Knicks were trailing throughout.

The point is that Gallinari was in a situation where he could attempt to shoot the Knicks back into the game, especially since Al Harrington and Nate Robinson were playing so poorly.

Gallinari was somewhere around a 13^th-rounder in the preseason rankings with projections of 11.5 points and 2.2 3-pointers per game. In a Mike D’Antoni system that seems plausible but he has yet to prove he can play inside and contribute in other categories.

If you need 3-pointers, he’s worth stashing early in the season, but there are bound to be wild ups and downs. Plus, his lingering back problems could surface and any minute. Approach with caution.

The Final Countdown

Blake Griffin dunking. Don’t get used to it, we won’t be seeing it for a while.

 

We are less than 12 hours from the start of the NBA season. Over the last few weeks, we’ve been bombarded news regarding players having one ailment or another.

The preseason is a time when every hangnail or sore throat becomes valid reason for a player to be sidelined for a week. There are so many “injury” reports during this time period that paying too much attention will make you wary of drafting anyone.

Well now that NBA and fantasy rosters are set, we finally have a clearer picture of which players have injuries that will make you start tearing your hair out right from the start. 

Blake Griffin (SF/PF): Griffin has a stress fracture in his kneecap (link) and could miss the first six weeks of the season. Even if he returns more quickly, he’ll basically be starting from scratch with his conditioning, which means he won’t be up to full speed until December. Not good.

Griffin was 62^nd in my roto rankings. He was expected to post solid averages of 16.7 points and 6.8 rebounds per game while chipping in close to one steal and one block.

But my rankings are not based only on averages but on projected season totals (projected per game averages times projected games played). His outlook was for 77 games. He is going to fall far short.

Griffin will be lucky to reach 60 games this season and only two players projected to play less than 60 games were included in my rankings. Those players were Mike Dunleavy (52 games, ranked 150th) and Tracy McGrady (46 games, ranked 146^th).

Basically, Griffin has slipped into the realm were he was borderline draftable. But if you have him, he’s worth hanging on to for his potential second half value. In the meantime, Chris Kaman and Al Thornton become more valuable since Griffin won’t be there to steal frontcourt minutes.

Don’t expect any marginal Clippers like Craig Smith or DeAndre Jordan to contribute anything other than the occasional solid game. They are not worth picking up unless it’s a very deep league.

Baron Davis (PG): In more Clippers news, Davis is questionable for the team’s season opener with a foot injury.  Davis is projected to miss 12 games this season, so the odd injury is going to happen and it doesn’t appear to be serious.

However, as long as he’s out, the value of Eric Gordon (already ranked 22^nd) rises even further. Sebastian Telfair could also find some value in assists and steals, but don’t expect it to be a long-term pickup. Davis will be back soon.

Pau Gasol (PF/C): Gasol is a game-time decision for the Lakers with a hamstring injury. This injury isn’t considered terribly serious, but hamstring injuries to have a tendency to linger.

Obvious his absence would mean a huge boost for Andrew Bynum, who will play despite preseason shoulder problems.

Bynum, however, is projected to miss 18 games this season due to his inability to stay healthy in his short career.

Derrick Rose (PG): Rose is dealing with an ankle injury and his status for the season opener is up in the air. Even if he plays, it’s likely to be in a reduced role. Rose’s ranking of 69 was based on him playing 79 games and even if he reaches that number, he is starting the season cautiously.

This has echoes of Deron Williams’ situation from last season. Williams was drafted not expecting to miss many games due to a preseason ankle problem but struggled from the start and didn’t start playing like a Top 25 player until December.

Kirk Hinrich, who I seemed to like more than most with a ranking of 96^th, may get off to a solid start as a result of Rose’s ankle.

Josh Howard (SG/SF): Ranked 70^th overall in the roto rankings, Howard is slowly recovering from offseason wrist and ankle surgery. His impending recovery has been delayed time and time again and now the Mavericks are saying he might miss the first few weeks of the season.

Based on the surgery, Howard was projected to miss nine games this season. But he was expected to be healthy to start. Bad news if you drafted Howard, great news if your drafted Shawn Marion, Drew Gooden or Tim Thomas – all of whom might see some increased value.

Glen Davis (SF/PF): Davis wasn’t drafted in many leagues, but his season-ending-before-it-began thumb injury will have some fantasy impact. It means larger-than-expected roles for Rasheed Wallace and Kendrick Perkins. The Celtics didn’t have a lot of size to begin with and now will need as many minutes as possible from their veteran big men.

Al Jefferson (PF/C): He will play. That was a close one.

Kevin Love (PF/C): Jefferson’s teammate was less lucky as Love will miss the first two months of the season following hand surgery. All of a sudden, Ryan Gomes looks palatable.

Raja Bell (SG): Even when he was projected to play 74 games, Bell was 164^th in the roto rankings. My system does not look favorably upon one-cat wonders. So the loss of Bell for as many as four months after wrist surgery isn’t a roto tragedy.

However, his absence means increased production for Raymond Felton and D.J. Augustin, both of whom are superior players. Bobcats coach Larry Brown has a way of favoring less-productive veterans over more-talented youngsters so clearing Bell from Augustin’s path is especially helpful.

Augustin was ranked at 112 and while he doesn’t become a Top 50 player by any stretch, his increase in value will become substantial. Expect him to average around 15 points with two 3-pointers and one steal per game.

Luis Scola (PF/C), Al Horford (PF/C), Antawn Jamison (SF/PF): All three are optimistic about playing their respective teams’ season openers.

And so it begins…. Good Luck!

Unorthodox Rankings

I’ve tried numerous methods for ranking players over the years. For a while I looked strictly at the rankings provided by other sources, eventually factoring in the average draft position of various fantasy websites. As I gained more knowledge I determined these methods to be ludicrous, mainly because I don’t trust the judgement of others.

What makes me think a player should be the fourth pick in a draft just because everyone else thinks so?

So for fantasy hoops season I’ve applied the guidelines I’ve used for fantasy baseball success: trust the numbers. I’ve devised my own projections using formulas I prefer to keep to myself. The players are ranked not just on per game totals, but expected season totals to factor in the probability of injury.

The shooting percentages of players who average less than 12 points per game have essentially been ignored since players with so few shot attempts have little effect on your team’s overall number. It’s the big scorers that move percentages.

Now, I realize my posting has been inconsistent but I would love to hear any thoughts on these. These will be used as my own personal guide while I draft this weekend.

You can take a look at the rankings/projections here. You’ll notice at the end of the projections is a category headed “TOT” which is essentially a player’s total score based on all the categories considered. The lower the number the better.

Keep in mind that these rankings are meant to compare each player’s projected statistical output which every other player in the league.  Some point guards and centers may be slightly more valuable than they appear on these projections based on positional scarcity. Players are broken into groups of 12 as if they were rounds in a 12-team league.

A quick note on some of the more surprising revelations:

Chris Paul is ranked seventh. I was shocked by this but as I looked at the numbers, I think he may be overvalued. Yea, he’s a point guard but you can also draft Dwyane Wade to fill your point guard spot and I honestly feel Durant and Granger are more valuable overall. Still you can’t go wrong drafting him second.

Amare Stoudemire is a mid-second rounder. Another stunner but it makes sense. He doesn’t contribute a true center-level number of blocks, won’t average a double-double and is not an adept passer.

Andre Iguodala is a first-rounder. This was the biggest shocker of all for me since he’s coming off an erratic season. But with Andre Miller gone, Iguodala will be handing the ball more often and his combination of scoring, steals, assists and rebounds affected his rating in an extremely positive way, as it did for Brandon Roy.

Of course, drafting a fantasy hoops roto team is tremendously different from any other sport. As you draft players, the value of remaining players changes based on what categories your team needs. Even though these are my rankings, I’m likely to go with my guy in the first two rounds and then use the rankings to fill in the roster.

I have a feeling some of my first and second-rounders will still be around after 24 picks, making some of them potential third-round gifts.

I’m sure plenty of people would look at these rankings and say that I’m nuts, but I like it that way. I’d rather have wildly different standards of value instead of thinking the same way as the competition.

Because above all I trust the numbers, not the opinions of others.

Andre Miller, Benchwarmer

Once upon a time, Andre Miller was a triple-double threat before become an average-scoring, excellent passing point guard with no jump shot. Then, he emerged as a veteran scoring and passing threat with the 76ers before being signing with the Portland Trail Blazers, where he has emerged as a …… bench player?

According to Yahoo!Sports, Miller has not yet been named the starting point guard in Portland. He averaged 16,3 points and 6.5 assists last season and they gave him $21 million in the offseason and yet somehow he’s competing with Steve Blake?

My pre-draft projections and rankings aren’t done yet (will be soon and posted at the end of the week), but I’m sure as hell that Miller is ranked way higher than Blake. For now, anyway.

While certainly worth reading, I’m taking the report with a grain of salt. I’d be stunned if Miller – barring injury – doesn’t start for the Blazers most of the season.

Empire Building Part IV: Lock on Targets

Once you have a completed a thoroughly researched list of players based upon whatever ranking system you felt was best, it’s time to start using your draft position to formulate an idea of what kind of draft strategy to use and get an idea of how your team is going to evolve.

I’ll usually have two lists of players in front me during any draft: an overall list of players ranked from best to worst; and a list of players by position broken down into tiers based on value. Where your particular tiers begin and end is subjective, of course. But your previous research should make it easier to identify where the gaps are.

When it comes to getting an early idea of who you’ll be drafting, it all start with your first draft pick, which varies depending on where your team is in the draft order. The higher up in the draft order, the narrower you can make your potential pick.

Have the second pick? You only have to decide between Chris Paul and Lebron James. Have the seventh pick? You should probably have about five guys in mind and prioritized. The highest one remaining when it gets to you is your pick.

Where you go from here depends on your format: head-to-head or roto.

For instance, if I have the sixth pick in my head-to-head draft and have Dwyane Wade, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant and Amare Stoudemire as my preference, whichever one I get will determine my ensuing moves. If I lade Bryant, my list of potential second round pick will be small ballers; if it’s Stoudemire I’m going big ballers all the way; while Durant and Wade give me some flexibility to go either way with the next pick.

In a roto leagues you can be far more flexible because often the best strategy is to go with the player who can help you in the most categories. In a head-to-head league, you’ll want to keep adding players who have similar profiles to players you’ve already drafted.

“Small ballers” are good in 3’s, FT%, Steals and Assists and “big ballers” provide some combination of FG%, Rebounds and Blocks. The idea is to pile as many players from one group onto your roster to dominate that group of categories. 

Drafts usually happen so quickly (especially when done online with a 90 second limit), that is easy to overlook which players you have denoted as targets. Therefore it is important to make these players as clearly marked as possible.
 
Use red marker, a larger or bolded font, circle the names once your list in printed out….do anything you can to make yourself recognize names that can NOT be forgotten.
 
The next real question is, of course, what players to target. I’ll help out a bit more with this than I did last season by providing my own rankings with projections within the next week.

Do not denote every player you would like to own as a target, otherwise you’d have the first four rounds of players marked up. You want to focus on players  that will increase in value and outperform their draft position and exceed their perceived value.

This becomes especially important in later rounds as many owners too often look at previous seasons to pick over-the-hill veterans or players who have switched teams in moves that will negatively impact their fantasy value.

Any monkey can wind up with a good fantasy team after six rounds. It’s the players that fill out your rosters – as well as injuries durinbg the season – that will most likely determine your fate.

Empire Building Part III: Preparing for Battle

Just like any project, preparedness is key for a fantasy draft. And if you want to be more prepared than those competitors who are just going to bring some random fantasy magazine to the draft, you need to create your own set of guidelines, targets and goals.
 
The first step is to determine players’ values. Although I use position-by-position rankings in baseball, I find an overall list more useful in basketball leagues. A fantasy basketball roster is fluid. Each player you draft dramatically alters how the rest of the draft will proceed since each fantasy category essentially exists independent of the others.

In baseball, for example, a player who hits a lot of home runs will also score and drive in a lot of runs. Pitchers with low ERA’s will also have a low WHIP and theoretically win more games. Those categories are intrinsically connected. Similar connections don’t necessarily exist in basketball.

A player who scores a lot of points may be poor in every other category. A great 3-point shooter may do nothing else to contribute to your team, which is like a living thing as the draft moves along, constantly growing and changing as strengths become weaknesses and vice versa.

Due to the unique nature of a fantasy basketball draft, I prefer to have a list of every player I have projected (usually around 250) sorted in order of their value with a listing of that stat projections. Doing this, however makes it crucial that you fully understand which positions have the most depth entering the season and which are thin talent-wise.
 
Discerning the value of a player is tricky business. As with all things, value is relative. You may not think very highly of Dwight Howard, for instance, but if you use your first picks on guards, you’ll start to drool over his ability to rebound and shoot and a high percentage.

One thing you never want to do is mentally over- or undervalue a player simply because you love/hate his personality/team/haircut/tattoos/sneakers, etc. Operate in a bubble where all you evaluate is a player’s ability to contribute to your team. There is no chemistry in fantasy basketball.
 
Every one should devise rankings system that works for them and it may take a few tries before you have one you feel comfortable list. The LAST thing you want to do is just print out Yahoo! or ESPN’s rankings and go from there. That’s somewhat OK for the early rounds, but you’ll be at their mercy during the later rounds, when the real season-changing picks get made.
 
I;m also dramatically against using a list of player’s Average Draft Positions in other fantasy drafts. Frankly, in most things in life I prefer to operate under the assumption that most people are idiots. So the last thing I want to do is base my draft strategy on how others are valuing players.

Aside from using my own set of projected stats, I assign one point to a player for each category he contributes in. How do I definite contribute? That depends on the size of the league and the size of the rosters.
 
In a basic 12-team league with 10 player spots, I assess “contribute” to be a .470 FG%, .775 FT%, 1.0 3s, 16.0 pts, 7.0 rpg, 3.5, apg, 1.0 stls and 1.0 blks. Reaching any of those numbers in a category would give a player one point per category in my rankings.
 
Certain players reside right on the border line statistically (like a player who averages 15.9 points). In cases like this, his career body of work as well as his trends (is he getting better or getting worse/older?) help me decide if a point is warranted.
 
Of course, added leverage in given to players that perform exceptionally in a particular category. After all, there is a big difference between 17.0 and 30.0 points per game.
 
So players in the upper echelon of certain categories (think Top 10-12) would be given an extra point. I leave turnovers totally out of the equation, although I am always aware of which players are turnover-prone for league that use that category.
 
(Note: The problem with turnovers is players who have the ball more are inherently worse than players who rarely get the ball. And in those cases, the players with more turnovers generally perform well enough in other area to offset the difference.)
 
In a standard nine-category league, the ultimate player would have a 16-point rating (two points in each category, not including turnovers).
 
I would love to be able to tell you this is a foolproof system and that sorting all NBA players by their previous season’s “point rating” would be all you need. But drafting is never that simple.
 
Beyond projections and any kind of system you may devise, there are plenty of issues that can affect a players’ ranking that go beyond his ability.
 
A crucial factor is health. Any injuries suffered late last season, or in the offseason, need to be factored in as well as the player’s history. Certain players (Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, Grant Hill) never seem to stay healthy for a whole season.
 
Players whose previous seasons’ were cut short or altered due to injury also need to be factored in to any rankings.

Changes in personnel are another factor that looms largest in basketball because there is only one ball and only one player can take a shot/grab a rebound at one time. If Marcus Camby somehow gets paired with Dwight Howard in Orlando, guess what? Less rebounds for Camby. This is distinctly different from baseball, where a player’s ability to produce is only marginally affected by his teammates.
 
How much weight you give to personnel changes and injury history are entirely up to you.  I’ve seen owners gamble and draft a number of injury risk players and have it payoff. I’ve also seen the same strategy backfire horrendously. Minimizing risk and maximizing value is what the draft in any fantasy sport is about.
 
No one really has a crystal ball to predict how any player will react to a new team, new teammates, new city, new coach, etc. It’s all just an educated guess, especially when dealing with non-superstars and role players. So the goal is to be the most educated person in the draft room.
 
One you have your rankings and know what spot in the draft you will pick, it’s time to start targeting players. Guys who you suspect, based on all the knowledge you have obtained, will be up for grabs when it is your turn.
  
It is important never to lock yourself in to a draft strategy. You need to be flexible. If you mentally pigeonhole yourself into thinking you MUST get a point guard in the first round, you’re setting a trap.
 
It’s fine to target a point guard, but you don’t want to over-reach for a player because you’re panicking. Desperation is the enemy. Knowing your rankings and the general value of each player is crucial to changing your strategy on the fly.
 
Draft strategy can vary wildly based on the owner. Any strategy can be effective if the owner is smart and a little but lucky. Some one who finished third in one of my league’s last year slept through the draft and didn’t even pre-rank his players and wound up with what seemed like a shaky team full of guys that had surprisingly great years.
 
Your strategy could be to always get the best scorer on the board, regardless of other categories and trade for rebounders, etc. later. That could work, but if you’re the 10th pick and the top eight scorers in the league are all gone, you might need to go another direction.
 
My usual philosophy is pretty basic. I always want to draft the player that can help me in the most categories. If two players are about equal, I want the point guard. Assists are at a premium and always a tradable commodity.
 
It is also always useful to draft a lot of scoring. This seems obvious, but it’s not. It is near impossible to gain scorers during the season because a) rarely do any 20 ppg scorers just pop up on the waiver wire and b) owners, especially inexperienced ones, over value points as a whole.
 
Points is just another category but to most owners, a guy who scores 20 points per game and does nothing else is WAY more valuable than a guy who makes two 3’s per game and does nothing else. Not really….same guy. But the perception is there which makes points harder to acquire via trades. Points are sexy.
 
Rebounds are very common and a ton of guys his 3s. Even crappy players can help you with your percentages. Points and assists are categories that owners are always looking for and, consequently, the hardest categories in which to gain ground.
 
Whatever system you decide to use and however your rankings turn out, they will be the crucial to the success of your draft and, consequently, your season. Think of them the night before the draft, during breakfast and study then leading up to the first pick.
 
Then, hold on to them tight and hang on.

Empire Building Part II: Truths Depends on Point of View

Once you’ve got a handle on your league’s rules and roster requirements, it’s time to gather intelligence.
 
One of my favorite historical figures is George Washington (tragically, I’m a bit of an American Revolution geek). Washington was not highly educated nor a great military commander in a strategical sense. But he surrounded himself with intelligent people, gathered their opinions, and applied his own knowledge, instincts and experience to make decisions and plot a course of action.
 
That’s what it is all about. That’s probably why you’re reading this blog right now, to gather even more opinions in hope of gleaning even more information that can help you draft your team.
 
Applying that idea to your league, take the time to read the opinion of those fantasy “experts” at the large media outlets (who are not necessarily smarter but have access to more information), smaller fantasy sites and blogs (ahem) and even the non-fantasy experts whose opinions on the NBA you trust.

Include all these opinions into your train of though and then use your own judgment to decide which are right, which are wrong and which should be given more credence than others.
 
Part of becoming an self-proclaimed expert at anything is developing the ability to listen to a highly-regarded expert give his opinion and respond with “that’s bullshit” (NOTE: this is to be done mentally, NOT to their face, although I can’t imagine Eric Karabell being threatening if you did).
 
When you can read the opinion of a basketball (or fantasy basketball) “expert” and not treat it as gospel, you’re on the right path. Absorb information, filter it, and come to your own conclusions.
 
The longer you play, the lessons you learn will make these conclusions easier to deduce and streamline your ability to target players’ value.
 
Any preliminary research leads to our next, and most involved part, preparing for your draft…..

Empire Building Part I: Know Your Rules (Obvious but Important)

The number one most important thing heading into your fantasy draft – in any sport – is to know the rules. This seems incredibly obvious but it’s also surprising how often owners get this wrong. And yes, I have done it myself.

Sometimes commissioners can throw little wrinkles into the scoring system that can turn conventional thinking upsidedown and dramatically alter the value of certain players

A couple of years back, I agreed to compete in a 10-team league at the last minute and had to do the draft over the phone at work. (I was suckered in by the big potential payout). Only AFTER the draft did I realize that the commish had used Assist-to-Turnovers Ratio as a category instead of Turnovers.

Because I drafted an excellent front line and took my guards later on, I was dead last in the category most of the season. While my frontcourt players didn’t commit many turnovers, they also didn’t generate many assists, so the ratio was putrid.

I moved up a couple spots late in the season and wound up finishing 9th out of 10 in the category. I finished third overall and may have been better had Andrew Bynum’s knee not crumpled like a piece of tinfoil.

But my lack of draft-day foresight provided an obstacle that kept me from competing for the top spot. I finished about six points out of first.

Be sure you don’t get yourself in a similar situation. The last thing you want to do is be asking fellow owners about the rules during the draft because your opponents would benefit from giving you “disinformation”. If you have to bring a printed out chart of the league’s scoring system/position eligibility requirements, etc, so be it.

Of Disappearing Wizards and Slumbering Blogs

If you’re a dork like me … and lets face it, you’re reading a fantasy basketball blog so it’s a fair assumption … you’ve probably read The Hobbit at some point in your life. And if you recall, midway through the story the wizard Gandalf just leaves the narrative, only to reappear towards the end with no explanation of where he’s been or why he was gone or what the hell he was up to.

Well, that’s the way I’m going to handle returning to this blog. I could go on and on about technical hurdles and lifestyle changes and blah blah blah. But really, no one cares. Because all it’s really about is showing up in time to help slay the dragon.

Well the 2009-10 season is nearly upon us and it’s time for this wizard ….. to ….. pick up his ……. magic hat?

OK, enough with the metaphors. It’s far too late for me to be cranking out team-by-team previews, but an updated version of my Empire Building Series plus plenty of analysis in the weeks to come as we prepare for draft season,

Fantasy baseball season is over, I’ve abstained from fantasy football this season (and loving it!) and as the leaves change the mind turns to the hardwood and I’m ready for it.

Wait, when did Hakim Warrick wind up on the Bucks? FUCK!

Odom Chooses Not to Increase His Fantasy Value

After about a month of much ado about nothing, Lamar Odom is finally off the market, signing a multi-year deal to return to the Los Angeles Lakers.

Had Odom landed in Miami, which many expected, his value would have received a boost. After all, he would have been second fiddle to Dwyane Wade instead of being the fourth or fifth option on a stacked Lakers team.

Based on how Odom performed during the 2008-09 regular season, it’s hard to get excited about his prospects. However, his career as a whole has been inconsistent and a much more productive 2009-10 campaign is not out of the question.

The biggest issue for Odom is playing time. He still produced the same per minute numbers as the previous seasons, but he played a career-low 29.7 minutes per game as Phil Jackson struggled to find a suitable rotation.

Perhaps Odom’s performance in the playoffs helped Jackson realize he should be playing 31-plus minutes per game.

Still, it can hardly be counted on for Odom to produce like he did in the postseason, especially with the arrival of Ron Artest and possible resurgence of Andrew Bynum. It’s impossible to tell how Artest’s dubious offensive judgment will impact Odom and the rest of the team or if Kobe Bryant’s escalating odometer will shift more of the offensive burden to the supporting cast.

Much like last season, Odom will be something of a gamble if taken too early. He’s got all of the ability to be a five-category contributor, but his inconsistent role shows he can’t be counted on to live up to the potential.

Wheeling and Dealing

Technical issues have preventing from posting as much as I would like lately (anyone have a new computer I could, um, have for free?). And while it’s been mostly quiet as Carlos Boozer remains in Utah and Lamar Odom in CandyLand, there have been some moves over the last few days that altered the fantasy landscape.

Most notable was the Charlotte Bobcats dealing franchise center (I SWEAR I typed that with a straight face) Emeka Okafor to the New Orleans Hornets for Tyson Chandler.

All things considered, this has to be a positive move for Okafor’s value and a negative one for Chandler, who was worthless much of last season anyway.

For all his shortcomings, Okafor is averaging a double-double in five NBA seasons while shooting better than 50 percent from the floor and blocking a shade under two shots per game. And is there any big man who wouldn’t benefit from playing with Chris Paul?

Okafor is not as gifted athletically as Chandler and may not run the break like he did, but he’ll still be on the receiving end on plenty of Paul’s passes and is a more multi-faceted scorer.

Chandler can’t score more than five feet from the rim. It was exciting to watch him throw down passes from Paul, but that was his lone weapon. Can he have the same connection with Raymond Felton and D.J. Augustin? It’s unlikely.

Chandler has averaged double digits in scoring just once in his career and – outside of a solid 2007-08 season – in pretty much a one-trick pony. He’ll grab rebounds and block some shots, but probably not enough, and shoot a high percentage en route to marginal point totals.

The real question that will be answered with this trade: was Chandler only valuable because Paul’s greatness turned him into a weapon? If so, Okafor could be a tremendous weapon as well and Chandler could fade into fantasy obscurity.

I still think Chandler will have some value as a late round pick for boards and blocks, but he’ll be a risky endeavor.

The Portland Trail Blazers finally landed their big free agent (we knew one was coming) by signing Andre Miller to a three-year deal over the weekend.

Miller was revelation in Philadelphia, mainly because the team’s makeup forced him to become more of a scorer than he otherwise would be and his value increased drastically. Now, he’s back to being a pass-first guy, which isn’t a bad thing but certainly makes him less well-rounded.

It’ll be curious to see what Miller will do on the floor while Brandon Roy has the ball. It’s almost as if the Blazers will have two point guards and Miller can’t just stand around and shoot jumpers because he won’t make many.

Of course, Roy has gotten banged up often in his brief career and Miller can be viewed as injury insurance.

In a move that probably flew well under the radar for most fantasy owners, the Hornets acquired a backup for Okafor in center Ike Diogu. 

Diogu is an interesting case. A few seasons back he was considered untouchable by the Warriors and a future star.  Now he’ll be on his fifth team in as many season without getting a solid shot on any of them.

All that and he’s averaged 17.7 points, 8.9 rebounds and one block per 36 minutes in his career. He’s never played more than 14.9 minutes per game and that was in his rookie season.

So what gives? Unexplored talent or career journeyman?

We’ll find out soon enough, but I feel if Diogu gets the opportunity to play, he’ll produce.

Basketball Stirs While Baseball Slumbers

Jarrett Jack may be Jose Calderon's new backup but could remain in Indiana. No telling which thought forced him to make this face.

Two of my least favorite weeks of the year are the NBA All-Star break and Major League All-Star break, respectively. I’m no college sports fan so there is NOTHING else going on for me during those days and I usually don’t get too excited about the All-Star festivities.

With MLBon hiatus on Monday, the NBA at least kept things a little interesting witha flurry of moves with fantasy ramifications.

Jarrett Jack signed a four-year offer sheet with the Toronto Raptors, which would potentially make him Jose Calderon’s backup.

Jack is one of those players I feel still is undervalued even though he played 33 minutes per game for the Pacers last season.  For his career, he is averaging 13.2 points, 5.0 assists, 1.1 steals and nearly one 3-pointer per 36 minutes with a .446 FG& and a .853 FT%.

It’s hard to gauge how many minutes Jack would get with the Raptors. His defensive ability and size would allow him to play alongside Calderon, so 30-plus minutes per game is not out of the question.

When playing with Calderon, Jack can become a scorer and defender. When Calderon rests, Jack can be the team’s primary ballhandler. There is potential here for the best of both worlds.

Jack finished last season as a ninth-round value. Considering the lingering questions about how he’ll be used, he seems safer as an 10th or 11th rounder right now.

Of course, Indiana still has seven days to match the offer.

LebronJames gained a new sidekick in Cleveland with the addition of Anthony Parker. After two nearly identical seasons with the Raptors, Parker took a step back last year as Toronto was in disarray for much of the season.

Parker’s FG% fell to .426 – his lowest as an NBA full-timer – and he averaged just 10.7 points per game. He did manage to post career highs in assists (3.4) and steals (1.3) but it hardly negates the negatives.

Parker’s situation is even more curious than Jack’s. As Toronto’s third scoring option, Parker never averaged more than 12.5 points. Now he’ll be backing up DelonteWest and sharing the ball with James, Shaquille O’Neal and Mo Williams.

Parker may become a threat for 3-pointers, steals and FT% and perhaps he becomes a more efficient player with a lesser role. Still, he’s a late-round pick at best until his situation becomes clarified.

In a more surprising move, the Orlando Magic decided to match the Dallas Mavericks’ offer for Marcin Gortat, thereby retaining his services.

This sucks.

Although I was not convinced of his ability to produce as a regular player, I was looking forward to drafting Gortat. How could you not want to own a guy nicknamed “The Polish Hammer”?

But alas, Gortat will remain backing up Dwight Howard. They might as well put “White Insurance Policy” on the back of his jersey. He will spend another season as a fantasy afterthought.

The good news is you still have Erick Dampier to grab when you’re desperate for blocks and boards.

And finally, Channing Frye signed with the Phoenix Suns. Once an uber-efficient rookie with the New York Knicks, Frye has followed withthree mostly forgettable seasons (one withNew York, two with Portland).

Frye is averaging 14.8 points, 8.2 rebounds and nearly one steals and one block per game per 36 minutes in his career. He has an erratic FG% history (.477, .433, .488, .423) but is a career 80 percent free-throw shooter.

Certainly Frye possesses talent and could possibly get the chance he needs to become relevant to fantasy owners again. As a jump-shooting big man, Frye could excel playing alongside the physical freak that is Amare Stoudemire and the deft passing of Steve Nash.

There are many questions left to be answered with regard to the Suns’ rotation this season, but I’d consider Frye a solid pick in the last couple rounds for his upside on a fantasy-benevolent team.

Sheriff Matrix

A brain-hurting trade of significant proportions came down the pipe on Wednesday when it was announced that the Dallas Mavericks acquired mercurial forward Shawn Marion in a four-team trade that involved the Toronto Raptors, Orlando Magic and Memphis Grizzlies. I believe it went down at the expansion franchise annual summer BBQ, after many plastic red cups had been emptied.

Approximately 140 players changed teams in the deal, give or take, but Matrix is the frustrating focal point.

Entering last season I admitted I had no idea what to make of Marion, who could have been a top 10 pick or shit the bed. Guess which he did?

Marion finished 52nd on Basketball Monster’s player rankings for 2008-09, so perhaps I’m being harsh about how bad he was. Or maybe I just drafted him among the top 15 picks in two leagues and got burned. I gambled, I lost … boo hoo.

Anyway, Marion’s 8.5 rebounds, 1.3, 1.0 blocks, .485 FG% and .796 FT% accounted for his value. He averaged just 12 points per game and made only 10 3-pointers in an injury-shortened season.

Now Marion shifts to Dallas where he will be the fourth offensive option. And strangely enough, I’m not sure it hurts his value all that much. In fact, it may even help.

While Marion was playing with the Phoenix Suns during his years of peak value, he was an afterthought. What I mean by that is that the Suns weren’t running plays for him and he was getting his points and rebounds in the flow of the game. He was arguably their best player while simultaneously being their fourth option, if that makes any sense.

That was mostly why he wanted out of Phoenix and stints in Miami and Toronto proved that he’s just not cut out to have an offense run FOR him. He’s better off playing alongside Jason Kidd, Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry and Josh Howard because it will allow him to play alongside great players, which may have been what made him great once upon a time.

I’d be stunned if Marion gets anywhere near his Phoenix-era numbers. Those days are likely long behind him. Definitely not making him a top 15 (or top 30) pick this season. But an improvement over last season’s disasterous season is pretty likely.

As far as the other players involved in the deal: Jerry Stackhouse winds up with Memphis, Greg Buckner, Kris Humphries and Nathan Jawai landed in Dallas and Antoine Wright and Devean George go to Toronto.

There is a lot of nonsense in that paragraph but the one player who might have a fantasy impact is Antoine Wright. It has been reported that Anthony Parker is leaving Toronto for Cleveland, which gives Wright the inside track on starting for the Raptors alongside Jose Calderon, Hedo Turkoglu, Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani.

Wright’s per minute numbers aren’t anything to get excited about. But a starting gig and 30 minutes per night could result in about one steal and one 3-pointer per game with potential for double-digit scoring.

Wright is still a tremendously flawed player and is only a deep-league option.

Weekend’s Best Fantasy Analysis: July 3-5, 2009

A quick look at some of the best fantasy basketball analysis from around the web this past weekend:

Closer: Brendan K. at 2nd Round Reach look at some of the offseason moves thusfar and their fantasy impact.

Go-To Guy: Erik at Points in the Paint ponders Jason Kidd’s value.

Second Option: Yahoo!’s Charlie Zegers takes a look at which rookies will be the most valuable this season.

Fantasy Fireworks

Talk about an eventful holiday weekend. I hit the Jersey shore for four days and come home with a lot of catching up to do as a flurry of moves have altered the landscape since last week’s Pistons shopping spree.

Since most of these moves have been covered in detail throughout the weekend, I’ll just give a quick recap with my take:

Rasheed Wallace signs with the Boston Celtics: This news broke late Sunday night and basically makes me physically ill due to my distaste for anything Boston related.

There seems to be a prevailing thought that Wallace is near the end of his usefulness, but his per minute numbers have been nearly identical for the past four seasons. Plus, he actually played more minutes last season that the 2007-08 campaign.

There are a lot of questions to be answered here. Wallace will basically be the fifth offensive option and relied on to shoot open 3-pointers, rebound and play defense – all of which still does well.

But with Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo comprising a bulk of the offense, how many shots will be left for Sheed? Will he get more or less minutes as a key veteran role player? Will the secondary role help his usually awful FG% as much as it hurts his scoring average? Will he be starting or coming off the bench?

This one is a wait and see situation, but Wallace is worth a gamble. He’ll still provide 3-pointers, steals and blocks at the center position and any injury to Boston’s aging trio could propel Wallace into a more substantial role on what may be the league’s best team.

Ron Artest signs with the Los Angeles Lakers: Despite Artest’s move to the defending champions, I’m approaching him with caution this season.

Artest is a tremendous defensive player and can shoot 3-pointers, but has really bad shot selection and turns the ball over far too much. Not only does that hurt in fantasy, but it worries me that he may find himself at the receiving end of Phil Jackson’s habit of taking playing time away from sloppy players.

Plus, we know the Lakers won’t be hitching their championship offense to Artest’s shoddy decision making. It will be Kobe Bryant, Paul Gasol, Lamar Odom and possibly the refreshed Andrew Bynum as the team’s most effective and efficient scorers. Artest will get the leftovers and doesn’t shoot well enough to truly maximize those limited opportunities.

The idea of an already valuable fantasy player joining the world champs will cause most owners to see it as an immediate step up. It may get Artest closer to a title, but it won’t do the same for an owner that drafts him too early.

Trevor Ariza signs with the Houston Rockets: Not too long ago, I warned against putting too much faith in players that make names for themselves in the playoffs, because they likely won’t generate the same production the following season.

Ariza is a player I would have considered in that category until this move.

Artest is gone from Houston, Tracy McGrady is perennially injured and Yao Ming may miss the entire season with a foot injury. So it would seem that Ariza is going to be a main weapon for the Rockets, who are shaping up as a running team that will generate high-scoring games. This bodes well for Ariza’s numbers.

We still have yet to see how Ariza will perform with major minutes during the regular season. But time and time again in fantasy basketball it is proven that opportunity is the biggest ingredient for success. Give any player 35 minutes a night and constant access to the ball and that player WILL be fantasy-relevant.

A conservative estimate should have Ariza averaging 15 points, 1.5 3-pointers, 7.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 3.0 steals per game. You could gamble on him averaging as many as 19 points per game and it may just pay off. All that stands in your way are McGrady’s brittle bones.

Marcin Gortat signs with Dallas Mavericks: This hasn’t happened yet but all indications are that Gortat is headed West. That means that there is a new viable fantasy center.

Best known as Dwight Howard’s white backup on the Magic, Gortat is a 25-year-old 7-footer who has shown solid rebounding and shot blocking skills in his two-year career. He has played in only 69 games, averaging 11.2 points, 13.0 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per 36 minutes while shooting 56 percent from the floor.

Gortat will be getting consistent major minutes at the NBA level for the first time, which may expose some glaring holes that have previously been overlooked. But any 7-footer getting 30 minutes per game is worth consideration as a second/backup center due to the potential for blocks and boards.

After all, he can’t be worse than Erick Dampier.

Detroit Contract City

In the first 24 hours of NBA free agency, the biggest splash was made by the Detroit Pistons, who have reportedly signed both shooting guard Ben Gordon and forward Charlie Villanueva.

This move is hard to analyze in regards to Gordon because it’s difficult to fathom how both he and Richard Hamilton can co-exist. Both need the ball and a lot of shots to be effective. Perhaps Hamilton is on his way out of Detroit but until it happens, this is a negative move in terms of Gordon’s fantasy output.

With the size of the contract (around $11 million per season), it’s fair to assume Gordon will be a starter. After all, he wasn’t happy coming off the bench in Chicago. So does that leave a Rodney Stuckey, Hamilton, Gordon starting arrangement? I have a feeling a lot more dominoes will fall before we get a true idea of what Gordon will be worth this season.

For Villanueva – whose deal is reportedly five years for $40 million – this is a positive step. The Pistons have made a huge commitment to him, which means he’ll be getting quality minutes on a regular basis.

With Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess gone via free agency and Amir Johnson dealt away, Villanueva will be the main man inside for the Pistons.

Villanueva has never been a true inside player. He doesn’t play physical enough. But he has a wide array of offensive skills, including a solid jumper, and above average rebounding ability.

In four NBA seasons, Villanueva has averaged 18.2 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.2 3-pointers, 2.4 assists and  1.0 blocks per 36 minutes. He has a .451 career FG% and .789 FT%.

It gives a glimpse of what type of player he can be with 30-plus minutes per game and depending on how the Detroit roster fills out, he’s likely to be a hot commodity on draft day.